Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown, Turkey’s bumpy recovery The raft of Q1 GDP data due next week are likely to show that aggregate growth in Emerging Europe slowed to its weakest pace in over two years. Much of this reflects weakness in Russia; growth in... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The much larger-than-expected contraction in Mexican industrial production in March, of 1.3% m/m, will diminish hopes of an upwards revision to the dire provisional Q1 GDP figure. With the economy... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak mandate for Ramaphosa, Another term for Emefiele The comparatively poor showing by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC in Wednesday's election will probably weaken the reformist leader in his on-going struggle with intra-party rivals... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q1 2019) The Q1 GDP figures presented a slightly stronger picture of the economy’s recent performance than we had expected. But with some activity likely to have been brought forward, we doubt Q2 will be as... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariff hike, fiscal support, inflation risks The US hiked tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. This escalation in trade tensions comes at a challenging time for the Chinese economy, with export growth already weak, fiscal support waning and swine... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA set to be disappointed by the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) sounded a little more upbeat than the statement issued after the Bank kept rates on hold on Tuesday. We still think that the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Data concerns come to the fore again Recent revelations have once again cast a spotlight on the accuracy of Indian data, but unfortunately, we doubt that the formation of an independent regulator, that some have called for, would lead to... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy ending Q1 on less gloomy note Activity figures for March were stronger than those for February, but it still looks almost certain that South Africa’s economy contracted in Q1. Conditions seem to have improved in April, and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack April jump in inflation won’t last Euro-zone GDP growth was stronger than expected in Q1, at 0.4% q/q, but we suspect that it will slow again in the coming quarters. Activity was flattered by the comparison with a weak end to 2018 and... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong credit growth no reason to cheer Strong business credit growth could be a sign that firms are becoming more upbeat about the outlook for business investment. In reality though, the data tend to lag actual investment spending and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) Q1’s slump in GDP growth should be temporary, as it was mainly driven by budget delays. But hopes for a sustained rebound are likely to be disappointed. A tough external environment and the lagged... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia’s economy one year after election One year on from Mahathir’s shock re-election, the Malaysian prime minister has made some useful progress in tackling corruption, but his decision to eliminate the Goods and Service Tax (GST) and... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What Q1 will give, Q2 may take away While the release of the GDP data for Q1 this Friday will probably show that the economy grew at a healthy clip, we doubt that Q2 will be as good. 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Germany This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Germany’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Mar.) The increase in industrial production in March is not as a good as it looks at first sight, not least because it was largely due to another increase in construction activity. Moreover, the business... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) Export growth last month was disappointing, with Trump’s latest tariff threats adding to the downside risks ahead. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices helped April’s import values beat expectations... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
