Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Implications of Riksbank’s FX and QE policies The Riksbank delivered a slightly more hawkish message than anticipated at its meeting this week, but we still think that the chance of an interest rate hike this year is falling. Meanwhile, despite... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Things might get worse before they get better It has been a worrying week for the economy. The Q4 GDP figures bore out the story that the global economic slowdown and Brexit worries are weighing on growth. And it increasingly looks like Brexit... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Firms pulling in their horns Corporate investment has been a key driver of domestic demand in Japan recently, underpinned by healthy profits and the growing capacity constraints that resulted from a prolonged period of above... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind Central Europe’s resilience? The strength of the latest GDP figures out of Central Europe, despite weakness in Germany, partly reflects rapid wage growth and robust consumer spending. But it also looks like growth was supported... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak growth in Singapore to prompt policy loosening The weak Q4 GDP figures for Singapore that were released earlier today reaffirm our view that monetary and fiscal policy will be loosened this year. Meanwhile, the widening of Indonesia’s trade and... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Despite growing concerns about Brexit, which seem to be weighing on other sectors of the economy, the rise in retail sales volumes in January implies that consumers are still willing to spend. Of... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Dodgy data, slumping Sensex Recent developments have again cast a spotlight on the accuracy of Indian data, but unfortunately, we doubt that the formation of an independent regulator, that some have called for, would lead to any... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) The jump in bank lending last month was mostly seasonal. But after months of declines, broad credit growth did edge up in January, hinting that monetary easing may be starting to gain more traction. 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian investment to fall, RBNZ tweaks stance Weak business sentiment in Australia is likely to be another drag on private investment in 2019. And given the role the housing downturn is playing in sentiment, we expect things to get worse before... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone/US divergence to narrow as US slows The recent contrast between a weakening euro-zone and resilient US seems to reflect the former’s higher exposure to world trade and the relative weakness of real disposable incomes growth there. We... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) & Producer Prices (Jan.) The unexpected plunge in control group retail sales in December means that fourth-quarter GDP growth was probably nearer 2.5% annualised than the 3.1% we had pencilled in and, more worryingly, it also... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) The unexpected slump in manufacturing sales in December was principally due to continued problems in petroleum refining, but the weakness extended well beyond that sector and suggests that Canada did... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Assessing regional “bellwethers” In this Focus, we assess how effective various indicators are for tracking economic growth in the region. The trade volume figures and our proprietary GDP Trackers provide the best guide to the state... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Leading indicators not (yet) pointing to recession Recent movements in most of the indicators which signalled the only two recessions in the euro-zone’s history suggest that the economic outlook has deteriorated sharply. They do not yet point... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) With Germany avoiding recession only by the skin of its teeth, and Italy actually in recession, the euro-zone eked out GDP growth of only 0.2% in Q4. For now we still expect growth to recover a bit... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data suggest soft end to 2018 December’s activity data supported our view that growth probably stabilised at about 1% q/q saar in Q4. Despite growing worries about power cuts, we expect that growth will pick up in 2019. 14th February 2019 · 1 min read