Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Activity expected to slow The latest data paint a mixed picture of the performance of the Swiss and Nordic economies at the end of 2018, with signs of weakness in Switzerland and Sweden offset in part by robust quarterly GDP... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EMs prepared for another downturn? The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing sector has lost more momentum in Q1 February’s flash PMIs show that the manufacturing downturn has deepened throughout advanced economies. The one comfort is that the surveys reported a pick-up in services sector activity. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weakness of underlying durable goods orders in December suggests that equipment investment growth slowed further in the fourth quarter, and we expect it to remain weak for most of this year. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian outperformance driven by one-off boosts Hungary was one of the fastest-growing EMs in the final quarter of last year. But almost all this was due to temporary factors and we expect that GDP growth will slow sharply this year. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update High inventories a downside risk to growth Against the backdrop of slowing global demand growth, the high level of manufacturing inventories in Canada is an underappreciated downside risk to GDP growth. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Households well placed to step up spending While the uncertainty caused by Brexit is hampering consumption, households’ finances are fundamentally sound. Indeed, with earnings growth at a decade-high in December and inflation below its 2%... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s Composite PMI provides some reassurance that the euro-zone economy as a whole is still growing. But industrial output is falling, and with the global economy slowing and trade tensions... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) January’s Polish industrial production data will help to allay fears about an abrupt slowdown. But it still appears that Poland’s economy as a whole lost steam at the start of this year and, as... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The continued sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in February adds to the evidence that Japan’s economy is losing steam rapidly and suggests that GDP growth will remain weak for now. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Pre-election loosening to provide short-lived support Measures to loosen both fiscal and monetary policy announced this month could provide a small boost to demand in the near-term. The finance ministry made a clear bid in the interim budget to shore up... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) The renewed widening of the trade deficit in January suggests that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth in the first quarter and we think that export growth will remain sluggish this year. 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The policy response to a no deal Brexit As demand and supply would both drop after a no deal Brexit, it’s not obvious how policy should respond. But our view that the drop in demand would last longer than any fall in supply suggests the... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) GDP growth in Thailand picked up in Q4, but it is likely to struggle for momentum in the quarters ahead due to weaker external demand. The key risk to the outlook is the possibility of unrest if the... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Data reinforce Fed’s “patient” stance The Fed’s “patient” stance was originally a response to the deteriorating global economic and financial market backdrop, but the dreadful activity data and subdued inflation figures out this week... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.6% m/m decline in industrial production in January was driven by a 0.9% drop in manufacturing output, suggesting that the US is now succumbing to the industrial downturn already evident across... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read