US Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP increased by 2.9% last year, up from 2.2% in 2017, but that acceleration is no surprise given the size of the fiscal stimulus introduced early last year. As the stimulus fades and the lagged... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Indian GDP data show that although the economy slowed in the final quarter of last year, it is still continuing to grow at a decent pace. The economy should perform relatively well in the first half... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The meagre 0.1% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q4 confirmed that, despite the surge in business and consumer confidence, there has been no Bolsonaro boost for the real economy yet. This supports our... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Buhari win sets stage for slow growth Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari’s clear win in last weekend’s election will almost certainly result in the continuation of his interventionist economic policies, which are widely seen to have... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to extend output cuts, more protests in Algeria Fresh hints from Saudi Arabia that it will extend its oil production cuts into the second half of this year support our view that economic growth in the Kingdom will be weaker than most anticipate... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland GDP (Q4) Q4 GDP data released this morning show that large parts of the region ended 2018 on a high note. However, more timely indicators suggest that activity has lost momentum into 2019. Against a backdrop... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The small rise GfK/NOP’s headline measure of consumer confidence in February leaves it only a touch above January’s five-year low, despite a healthy economic backdrop for consumers. As a result... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Feb.) The latest survey data suggest that manufacturing output growth slowed last month, possibly to its weakest level since 2009. Construction activity also appears to have softened, raising questions over... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q4) While the private capital expenditure survey showed a rise in capital spending in Q4, we think that private investment spending actually fell. And given the recent deterioration in business confidence... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The sharp falls in industrial production and retail sales in January suggest that the economy slowed sharply at the start of 2019. And the deterioration in business confidence means that a rapid... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) confirmed the message from other surveys that despite weakness in the industrial sector, the overall economy is still growing. That said, the... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s strong batch of ESIs suggest that resilient domestic demand is helping the economies of Central and Eastern Europe to cope with economic weakness in Germany. 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth in Hong Kong to remain weak in 2019 Hong Kong’s economy ended last year on a weak note as exports slumped and household spending softened. We think growth will remain subdued in the months ahead. The relatively expansionary budget... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Some convergence in business confidence While business confidence in New Zealand seems to be recovering from the slump after 2017’s election, it has weakened in Australia. (See Chart.) That deterioration can partly be explained by softer... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Growth soft at the start of 2019 The Q4 EM GDP data released so far have generally been a bit stronger than might have been expected, in light of concerns about the health of the global economy. But more timely data suggest that... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economic growth slowing below trend The weak incoming data mean that economic growth is on track to slow below its 2% potential pace this quarter. That kills off any remaining prospect of further Fed rate hikes and, with economic growth... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read