Latin America Economics Update Revising down our Mexico growth forecast The carryover from the weak Q1 Mexican GDP growth figure has prompted us to revise down our growth forecast for this year to 1.8% (our 2020 forecast is unchanged at 1.5%). Slow growth increases the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data suggest that Russian GDP growth picked up at the start of Q2 as strong industrialoutput offset continued weakness in the retail and construction sectors. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The weakness of the April durable goods data, which showed underlying orders unchanged following a downwardly-revised plunge in March, provides further evidence that economic growth is slowing sharply... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EU elections, more weak surveys This week saw the release of another set of underwhelming business surveys, suggesting that the pick-up in GDP growth in Q1 will not be sustained, and some further evidence that price pressures remain... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Prop from construction prevents further slowdown Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that, while a further acceleration in construction activity prevented growth from edging down in April, momentum in the rest of the economy softened last month. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Away from this morning’s political developments, April’s retail sales figures were better than most had feared. Nonetheless, the figures still suggest that GDP growth will be weaker in Q2 than in Q1. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Can the party continue? Election fever has gripped Indian financial markets this week, with equities and the rupee rallying as it became increasingly clear that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP would secure another resounding... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Abe will probably press ahead with sales tax hike The Q1 GDP figures overstated the health of the economy and we expect a renewed slowdown in the second quarter. But with domestic demand still rising at a healthy pace and the unemployment rate at the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Five more years of Modi Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has secured another stunning victory in India’s general election. The key priority for Mr Modi in his second term should be to implement reforms to develop the manufacturing... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs add to evidence of a slowdown in Q2 After global GDP was stronger than expected in Q1, the continued weakness in the latest business surveys among advanced economies suggests that the world economy will lose steam in the second quarter. 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May.) The flash PMIs for the euro-zone continued to disappoint in May and suggest that the economic growth dropped back again in the second quarter. And with the Ifo Business Climate Index having fallen to... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) April’s strong batch of activity data suggests that, following an already-impressive Q1, Poland’s economy accelerated at the start of Q2. Our GDP Tracker points to growth of 5.3% y/y in April. 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Lebanon stuck between a rock and a hard place The outlook for Lebanon’s economy is going from bad to worse. The most immediate threat is that the country could find itself caught in the crosshairs amid escalating tensions between the Gulf... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weakness of core inflation to prove persistent Fed officials have dismissed the recent weakness of core inflation, which has fallen to only 1.6% on the PCE measure, as being driven by transitory factors. Methodology changes resulted in a sharp... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales growth was flattered in March by higher gasoline prices and the unwinding of temporary factors that had weighed on sales in February. We expect overall consumer spending growth to lag... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What’s happening to home improvement spending? With inventory levels close to record lows, we suspect many frustrated home movers are instead choosing to improve their current home. We therefore place more faith in the BEA estimate of home... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
