India Data Response GDP (Q1) The sharp drop in GDP growth in Q1 looks all the more perplexing given that various other indicators suggest a much milder slowdown last quarter. Nevertheless, the data will seal the deal on another... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe driven by domestic demand The full breakdown of Q1 GDP data for the economies of Central Europe confirmed that domestic demand remains the main driver of growth, although there was a surprisingly large boost from net trade in... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No change in households’ appetite to spend Reassuringly, following the raft of weak survey data released this week, consumer credit growth held up well in April. And with the labour market healthy and interest rates only likely to rise... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) Consumers appeared unfazed by the political chaos, with the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence rising to a fresh eight-month high in May. But with the economic fundamentals of consumer spending... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) Turkey’s economy returned to growth in Q1 but the tightening of financial conditions over the past couple of months has probably resulted in a renewed downturn. This reinforces our view that the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Businesses remain cautious Business investment probably dropped again in Q1 and with business confidence remaining weak we think private investment will continue to decline over the rest of 2019. By contrast, we suspect the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (May) The latest survey data suggest that economic growth in China has yet to bottom out. Given the growing headwinds from US tariffs and signs that the labour market may be faltering, we expect... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market (Apr.) & Tokyo CPI (May) The rebound in industrial output in April coupled with upbeat forecasts for May suggests that the manufacturing sector will return to growth in Q2. However, we still expect the labour market to... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2019) The 0.2% q/q fall in Brazilian GDP in Q1 was, in part, the result of temporary factors including a sharp drop in iron ore output. But the early signs are that growth in Q2 has been very weak too and... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian survey data point to small pick-up in growth A recent improvement in the survey data from Russia suggests that, following an extremely disappointing Q1, the economy should undergo a modest recovery over the next few quarters. 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Higher spending may provide a small economic boost Significant increases in operating and capital spending are a welcome takeaway from today’s Budget. But the economic impact is likely to be modest and the government is still expected to be a drag on... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Three cuts in a row The MPC is likely to use the current low rate of headline inflation as justification for a third consecutive rate cut at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Thursday 6th June. But with a growing... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the trade war impacting Japanese FDI? While there is growing anecdotal evidence of some Japanese firms shifting production of US-bound goods from China to Southeast Asia, the large size of China’s domestic market means that China will... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q1) Private investment probably fell for the third consecutive quarter in Q1 and firms’ forecasts point to further declines over coming quarters. 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional growth slumps The raft of GDP data released this month showed that regional growth slowed to just 0.3% y/y in Q1 (from 1.0% y/y in Q4), the weakest pace in two years. While it doesn’t look like sluggish growth will... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Monetary tightening comes into focus Emerging Europe has been one of the few parts of the emerging world where attention has centred on monetary tightening (rather than loosening) in the past month. A rise in core inflation to multi-year... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
