Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Public demand limiting RBA’s scope to cut rates Even though state and federal budgets point to a sharp slowdown in public demand in 2024/25, our analysis suggests that the public sector will keep providing a sizeable boost to GDP growth. And if we... 18th September 2024 · 12 mins read
US Economics Update Lower gasoline prices to cushion consumers Despite the US being a net oil exporter, the recent plunge in the oil price will be a tailwind for the economy, as lower gasoline prices support consumer confidence and real consumption. The Fed will... 17th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation and fiscal risks simmering We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters... 17th September 2024 · 22 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Aug. 2024) Manufacturing output rebounded strongly in August as the temporary disruptions to production from the previous month were reversed. Together with last month’s solid gain in control group retail sales... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024) EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: key client questions answered We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on... 16th September 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Low saving rate not a major concern The continued decline in the saving rate, which is now close to a 16-year low, is not a major concern given the recent surge in household net wealth. Furthermore, as the saving rate is calculated from... 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2024) The 0.9% m/m rise in manufacturing sales volumes in July implies there are upside risks to the flash estimate that total GDP was unchanged at the start of the third quarter, although the negative tone... 16th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2024) Activity growth slowed last month, falling short of expectations across the board. The service sector is still faring reasonably well and the fiscal support that’s already in the pipeline should help... 16th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Developers continue to shrug off high interest rates The sharp rebounds in both residential and non-residential building permit issuance in July eased concerns that the construction sector is about to take a turn for the worse. Risks remain, however... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry will continue to struggle A large part of the decline in euro-zone industry over recent years shown by the monthly data appears to be due to mismeasurement. Nevertheless, the sector is struggling with a loss of international... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus The post-election UK economic landscape The structural deterioration in the fiscal situation suggests that a tight grip on the public finances in the Budget on 30th October will be necessary. That’s why we think the government will maintain... 12th September 2024 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de... 12th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest hard data and survey indicators point to a slowdown in both manufacturing... 12th September 2024 · 0 mins read
Canada Economics Update What happened to the boost from Trans Mountain? There was little impact on GDP from the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion because the jump in exports was supported by a drawdown of inventories from elevated levels, rather than... 11th September 2024 · 2 mins read
