Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) Turkey’s economy grew by a rapid 1.9% q/q in Q4 of last year and loose policy will keep it motoring along over the coming quarters. But there are increasing signs that strong growth is fuelling a... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Surge in non-mining investment unlikely The capex survey for Q4 showed capital expenditure falling sharply at the end of last year. And while mining firms’ first estimate for capital spending in 2020/21 was very strong, non-mining firms are... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Global virus spread adds to downside risks for China The extended disruption from efforts to contain COVID-19 means that China’s economy is already in the midst of the deepest contraction in at least two decades. And the potential hit to foreign demand... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The coronavirus is likely to knock off course the slight recovery observed in the manufacturing and retail sectors last month. As such, we expect the unemployment rate to rise further over the coming... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Virus-hit global demand to weigh on the UK The failure of the Chinese economy to recover promptly from the measures put in place to contain the coronavirus means that world demand growth will be softer than we had anticipated this year, but... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn has passed its trough Our GDP Tracker suggests that the downturn in Saudi Arabia’s economy deepened in Q4 of last year and, while the worst has probably now passed, the downside risks to the outlook are mounting. 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update US Recession Watch (Feb.) The recent re-inversion of the Treasury yield curve and the sharp sell-off in equities, due to growing fears that the new coronavirus will develop into a full-blown pandemic, have reignited fears that... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe provided yet more evidence that weakness in industry is spreading to domestically-focused sectors. There are no... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q4) We estimate that investment fell sharply, by 1.5% q/q in Q4. But firms’ expectations of a pick-up in nominal capital expenditure in the next financial year suggest the drag from private investment... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Extended shutdown deepening economic contraction With normal activity taking longer to recover than seemed likely earlier this month, we now think that China’s economy will contract outright in year-on-year terms this quarter, for the first time... 26th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s economy to slow but remain a bright spot Portugal’s economy has been a relative bright spot in the euro-zone in recent years and we think it will fare better than average again this year. Nonetheless, quarterly GDP growth looks set to slow... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP Q4 2019 (Second Estimate) After flat-lining in Q4 last year, we suspect that the German economy will not grow in the first half of this year either, even if the effects of the coronavirus are contained. 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Quantifying the impact of the coronavirus on exports We estimate that the disruptions to China’s economic activity in the wake of the coronavirus will reduce Australia’s total exports by 3% this month. The drag from fewer Chinese students and tourists... 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombian growth to slow even if oil prices recover Fears about the coronavirus have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for Colombia’s economy. But even if – as we expect, the virus is brought under control soon and oil prices... 24th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2019) Growth in Nigeria ticked up a notch in Q4, but there is still no sign of a broad-based economic recovery. We expect that the authorities will continue to enact unconventional stimulus policies later... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
