UK Economics Weekly Possible contraction in Q2, all roads lead to a fiscal loosening The chances of the economy escaping a quarterly contraction in Q2 seem to be receding in light of the latest surveys and official data. While a contraction in Q2 would generate many headlines, it... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response GDP Quarterly National Accounts (Q1 2019) GDP growth was unrevised at 0.5% q/q in the first quarter of the year, but that probably marked a temporary high as activity was brought forward ahead of the original Brexit deadline. Consequently the... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Vietnam’s economy grew strongly in the second quarter of the year and the economy is likely to perform well over the coming year, helped by booming exports to the US. 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (May) While the labour market remains tight, the drop in the job-to-applicant ratio is an early sign that it will slacken over coming months. Meanwhile, the jump in industrial production and capital goods... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (May) The solid rise in retail sales values in May suggests that consumption growth will be quite strong in the second quarter and we think that it will continue to expand at a rapid rate in the third... 27th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will probably cut rates to 1.0% The RBNZ’s dovish tone supports our view that the Bank will cut rates again before the year is out. In fact, we now think the Bank will cut at its next meeting in August, and once more at its November... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA thinks about China slowdown & QE The RBA seems to be getting more concerned about a slowdown in China’s GDP growth and the recent slowdown in visitor arrivals from China will only exacerbate those worries. Meanwhile, Governor Lowe... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Cyprus to outperform euro-zone, but risks remain Cyprus has now recovered from the economic crisis of 2012-13, which was caused primarily by its oversized banking sector. While a number of risks remain, notably the high level of non-performing loans... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Fed’s dovish shift embraced by markets Although only a minority of Fed officials anticipate that interest rates will need to be cut at all this year and not a single official believes that rates will need to be reduced by more than 50bp in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) May’s activity data suggest that, following extremely weak GDP growth in Q1, Russia’s economy has failed to gather much momentum in Q2. 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further policy loosening on the cards Amid signs of a recent slowdown in economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting in early June, taking the repo rate to its lowest since 2010. What’s... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: better GDP data no election game-changer Argentina’s recession eased in Q1 and our GDP Tracker suggests that the economy returned to positive growth in Q2, but the recovery will be weak and the unemployment rate looks set to rise further... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ will wait and see GDP growth in Q1 was stronger than the RBNZ had forecast and the Bank will have been encouraged by the government’s stimulatory Budget. As such, the RBNZ is likely to take a ‘wait and see’ approach... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) Growth in New Zealand is likely to remain soft throughout 2019 as subdued business conditions and weak global growth weigh on the economy. Indeed, we expect annual growth to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Sri Lanka accelerated in the first quarter of the year, but with tourism arrivals collapsing following the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks, growth is likely to slow sharply this year. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) Temporary plant shutdowns in the automotive sector explain why manufacturing sales fell in April, but the further drop in the Markit manufacturing PMI in May suggests that underlying demand remains... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read