India Economics Update Coronavirus to weigh on economic recovery The rapid global spread of the coronavirus has prompted us to lower our 2020 GDP growth forecast for India to 5.3%, from 5.7% previously. And there is now a high chance that the RBI follows the lead... 4th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - GDP (Q4) GDP growth remained subdued at the end of last year, and given the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak we expect the economy to deteriorate further in 2020. 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Coronavirus will force Bank of Japan to cut rates Two developments over the past couple of days have caused us to change our thinking on the outlook for monetary policy in Japan. We now assume that the coronavirus will spread widely across most of... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy in the doldrums The sharp fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q4 not only marked a technical recession, but also set up a very weak starting point for 2020. And downside risks are growing with the spread of the coronavirus... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss GDP likely to contract in Q2 The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP growth in Q4 provides a higher base for annual growth rates at the start of this year than we had previously assumed. Nonetheless, following the surge... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone GDP to contract in Q2 and perhaps beyond Following the surge in Covid-19 cases over the past week, we are cutting our forecast for euro-zone economic growth to 0.5% for the year, from 0.7% previously, due to a sharp drop in household... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Making sense of the GDP revisions Revisions to India’s GDP data suggest that the recent slowdown started earlier, and problems in the shadow banking sector have had a more acute impact on the economy, than previously thought. But... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Coronavirus: the long-term impact on supply chains The coronavirus itself may not trigger a wholesale reorganisation of supply chains, but it strengthens the argument for companies to reduce associated risks. One response might be to introduce more... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The drop in the manufacturing PMI in February was expected given its previous surge to an eight-year high in January. But the reading is still consistent with decent growth in manufacturing and... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) PMI readings for Asia are likely to have understated the disruption to industry from factory shutdowns in China, and the recent rise in coronavirus cases outside of China means that worse may be yet... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Feb.) The latest PMI readings were in line with our downbeat expectations but will come as a shock to most analysts, who had anticipated a much smaller hit to business activity from the coronavirus outbreak... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Feb.) Growth in Korean trade in February masks underlying weakness. Trade with China shrank sharply due to disruption from the coronavirus, and there were few signs of strength elsewhere. 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus: five points on the hit to EM activity so far This Activity Monitor outlines five key points on the coronavirus fallout for EMs, including what we can say about the impact so far. At the very least, it looks like the virus will cause aggregate EM... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Economy more vulnerable to pandemics than in the past While medical advances put the world in a better position than in the past to limit the health consequences of a global pandemic, globalisation and a bigger services sector mean that, other things... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) India’s economy slowed again in the fourth quarter of last year, confounding hopes for a small turnaround. But the bigger story in today’s data release is the substantial revision to the GDP data for... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Finland & Denmark GDP (Q4), Swiss KOF (Feb.) The Swedish economy ended last year on the back foot, and a combination of the rising threat from the coronavirus, weak growth in the neighbouring euro-zone, and persistently below-target inflation... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
