Europe Economics Update EZ heading for a sharp but (probably) short recession In the current circumstances, any economic forecasts come with a huge pinch of salt. But we now think the euro-zone economy will experience a deep slump in Q2 this year, causing GDP to decline by more... 10th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Counting the cost of the coronavirus outbreak In a moderate scenario where demand returns to pre-coronavirus levels by year-end, we estimate that the outbreak of the disease will knock off 1% from GDP growth this year. In a more severe scenario... 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Focus New forecasts for Emerging Asia as coronavirus spreads There is a huge amount of uncertainty over how things will play out over the coming weeks as the coronavirus crisis continues to unfold, and any forecasts should be taken with more than the usual... 10th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Update How vulnerable is Japan to supply chain disruptions? Manufacturers in Japan are on the whole less dependent on imported components than those in other major rich economies and so are less vulnerable to global supply chain disruption. But there’s a... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The plunge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in February to its lowest level since the 2011 tsunami suggests that the intensified spread of the coronavirus will cause consumer spending to fall... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Exports dropped the most since 2008 at the start of this year. Imports held up better but at the expense of a jump in inventories. Inbound shipments will soon play catch-up with the slump in domestic... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea could be next to disrupt global supply chains Korea’s position as a key supplier of high-tech intermediate goods means it plays an important role in regional supply chains. Extended factory closures due to the spread of the coronavirus would... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Revised) A disastrous Q4 following the sales tax hike was shown to have been even worse in the second estimate of GDP. That supports our bearish view that output will fall by 1% this year. It also further... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Grim outlook means RBA will launch QE before long Recent data show that the Australian economy was sputtering even before the coronavirus started to spread within the country in earnest. We now think the rising number of cases in Australia will cause... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession appears baked in, fresh stimulus on the way Consumer spending has rebounded from the slump caused by October’s sales tax hike and we’ve pencilled in a rise in the first quarter. But the coronavirus is likely to result in a renewed slowdown over... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Virus a growing threat to domestic activity The jump in coronavirus cases in India this week underlines the threat of a wide-scale outbreak in the country. We are now working on the assumption that this takes place and have revised down our... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Jan.) Retail sales fell for the second consecutive month in January. And given that this happened before the coronavirus started to spread in Australia in earnest, the outlook for consumption remains weak. 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian GDP likely to contract in Q1 and Q2 The response by policymakers, households and firms to the spread of the coronavirus looks set to take a heavy toll on Italy’s economy. We suspect that GDP will contract in both Q1 and Q2, and that... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Australian fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming We expect the Treasury to announce only a small fiscal package of around $2bn in response to the coronavirus outbreak. With economic activity slowing sharply and revenues undershooting expectations... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2019) Brazil’s relatively strong 0.5% q/q GDP growth rate recorded in Q4 masked a sharp loss of momentum late in the quarter. Taken together with growing headwinds from the effects of the coronavirus more... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Feb.) The return of deflation to Switzerland in February will only strengthen the policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising much further. Following yesterday’s emergency rate cut by the Fed... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
