Japan Data Response External Trade (Oct.) Import volumes fell much less in October than after the 2014 sales tax hike, supporting our view that the tax hike will dent domestic demand less this time around. Export volumes also fell in monthly... 20th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services sector slowdown to gather pace The euro-zone’s services sector has held up relatively well so far this year. However, we expect spill-overs from the industrial recession and slowing employment growth to take a toll in the coming... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Thailand only managed to nudge up in Q3, and with global growth set to drag on exports we expect the economy to remain sluggish in the quarters ahead. 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Share buybacks are not to blame for weak investment The recent surge in stock buybacks has largely been driven by mining and financial firms and therefore can’t explain the weakness in non-mining investment. Non-mining profit growth should rebound a... 18th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s current account, Hungary’s strong GDP Turkey’s current account has been in surplus for three consecutive months now, but the government’s efforts to speed up the recovery will probably cause the external position to deteriorate again soon... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Domestic demand fading as main driver of growth Domestic demand appears to have been the main driver of euro-zone GDP growth in Q3 but this looks set to fade as employment growth slows. Indeed, the first surveys for November next week are likely to... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Another swing in SA output, Kwanza stable, Fiscal splurges The latest South African activity figures added to evidence that the economy contracted again in Q3. Meanwhile, Angola’s recession is likely to be prolonged into 2020 given the currency’s falls this... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Duterte health worries, Sri Lanka election If President Duterte is forced to leave office through ill health, Vice President Leni Robredo, who leads the main opposition party in the Philippines, would take over as president. We don’t know much... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trade deal won’t avert a further slowdown The US and China still appear to be making progress towards a trade deal. But a partial tariff rollback wouldn’t provide as much of a boost to exports as is often assumed. And any short-run... 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Malaysia slowed in the third quarter, and we think the economy is likely to lose more steam in the quarters ahead due to headwinds from tighter fiscal policy and a weak external... 15th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Impact of tax hike on consumption set to remain small Private consumption growth in Q3 was much weaker than ahead of the 1997 and 2014 sales tax hikes. While that’s partly because underlying consumer demand is subdued, the muted spending rush on durables... 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bracing for more weak GDP data After a very weak first half of the year, the latest monthly data suggest that the economy hasn’t fared any better in the second half. We are revising down our estimate of Q3 GDP growth to 4.7%... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why a new wave of structural reforms is unlikely A new wave of structural reforms, if implemented, could plausibly lift average EM GDP growth by over 1%-pt in the 2020s. But we doubt that these reforms will be forthcoming. Even if they are, EM GDP... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s woes, Qatar blockade, Kuwaiti infighting The situation in Lebanon is going from bad to worse and the chances of a combined debt, currency and banking crisis are rising. President Aoun seems to be seeking a bailout package but this would only... 14th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (second estimate), Employment (Q3) While the second estimate of Q3 GDP for the euro-zone was unchanged, and Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession, we think that the cyclical downturn in the region still has further to run. Our... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
