US Economics Update New macro forecasts – Q2 GDP to fall at 40% pace With the number of COVID-19 cases in the US skyrocketing and a rising share of the population under lockdown, we need to revise our macro forecasts quite significantly: We now expect second-quarter... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Region to suffer worst downturn since the 1980s Governments across the Middle East and North Africa have taken increasingly draconian steps over the past couple of weeks to contain the coronavirus outbreak and, as a result, there will be much more... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Growth to slump to a four-decade low in 2020 The measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus announced by PM Modi last night will be hard to fully implement but will still have severe economic repercussions. We now expect the economy to... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Lockdown will deepen economic contraction President Cyril Ramaphosa’s decision to emulate the lockdowns seen in Europe and East Asia will cause GDP to fall by 6-8% in Q2. It will also be the first real test of whether such policies can be... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy heading for recession The slump in domestic and external demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak means that we now expect the Russian economy to contract sharply this year. Despite its recent reluctance we expect... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Mar.) While the manufacturing PMI didn’t fall as sharply as we had anticipated in March, the plunge in the services sector underlines that the coronavirus outbreak will result in a sharp slowdown in... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Will the market rout trigger a balance of payments crisis? Foreign portfolio flows out of India’s markets have surged over the past month to more than double the peak during the “Taper Tantrum” in 2013, which pushed India to the brink of a balance of payments... 23rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ unleashes full QE firepower New Zealand is set to enter a near-total lockdown this week which will cause economic activity to all but stop. The RBNZ launched quantitative easing today, but we think that more monetary stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Fiscal support ramped up as shutdown looms Australia is moving closer to shutting down a large share of its services sector and we now expect GDP to fall by 4% this year. The government is responding with a second, larger fiscal stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials still in denial over growth, scale of stimulus China’s government will only lower its 2020 GDP target marginally, to around 5% according to media reports. Given the sharp contraction in output this quarter, this would require implausibly strong... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Domestic lockdown eased as global outlook worsens Rapidly rising infection numbers in Europe and North America have prompted many government in those countries to roll out strict nationwide lockdowns. By contrast, there were signs of Japan’s already... 20th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Second stimulus will focus on damage control We suspect that the fiscal stimulus package that will be unveiled over the weekend will focus on limiting the damage from the coronavirus outbreak rather than on providing a large boost to demand... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Coronavirus will cut growth across the region It now seems clear that the coronavirus outbreak will cause greater economic damage than we had initially thought – both globally and within Africa. Growth will slow across the region, with South... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tourism slump to hit parts of the region hard Efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak look set to hit tourism sectors across the MENA region hard. The North African economies, as well as Dubai, Lebanon and Jordan, are most vulnerable and the... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How to think about the long-term effects of the virus The immediate effects of the coronavirus on the global economy are becoming increasingly clear and point to a sharp fall in output across the world. Recession looms. The effects over the longer term... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
