China Data Response Official PMIs (Mar.) The latest survey data add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound but suggest that weak foreign demand and labour market strains remain headwinds. 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Activity indicators show that the economy continued to expand in February. Unfortunately, domestic and external demand have since collapsed, so output is set to contract sharply this year. 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Business surveys under-estimating the slump in GDP The business surveys for March point to declines in activity at least as deep as during the global financial crisis. None of them will be perfect guides to GDP though. If anything, the economy seems... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia: Wage subsidy won’t prevent surge in unemployment The government assumes that around a quarter of all employees will benefit from the huge wage subsidy unveiled today. Indeed, we now expect the unemployment rate to peak at 12% instead of our previous... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack First EM GDP contraction in post-war era The real-time economic and market disruption from the coronavirus means that much of the data released during the past month offers little insight into current developments in the emerging world... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Update A completely new type of recession This coronavirus recession isn’t anything like a “normal” one. The fall in output will be sudden and vast. The huge policy response means the recovery should be much quicker than normal too. But the... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Locking down New Zealand imposed a draconian lockdown this week and we expect Australia to follow within days. We now expect GDP to plunge by around 30% in both countries in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the RBA... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry will need to do more The Finance Ministry took its first shot at responding to the coronavirus outbreak yesterday but, at only 0.7% of GDP, the fiscal stimulus measures are small. Much more will be needed to prevent a... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Corona complacency risks faster spread Survey data point to a sharp fall in economic activity in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Admittedly, there were some signs that activity was picking up again in the second half of March. But as... 27th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Complete lockdown could lower GDP by 30% in Q2 We estimate that a lockdown that would limit activity to “essential services” could knock off as much as 30-40% from Australia’s GDP for as long as it lasts. A lockdown is imminent and our best guess... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update French statisticians think GDP down 35% Measuring the economic fallout from the coronavirus is fraught with uncertainty, but the French statistics office estimates that economic activity is currently running a whopping 35% below normal. If... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices, virus outbreak batter economies Given the pace at which the coronavirus is disrupting activity both in Africa and globally, most of the backward-looking figures released this month probably tell us very little about the current... 26th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1, Advanced) The sharp contraction in Singapore’s economy in Q1 was deeper than expected, and with global growth collapsing, the worst is yet to come. Given today’s outturn, we are lowering our 2020 GDP growth... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update What would a lockdown mean for Japan’s economy? Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike is mulling a lockdown for the capital in response to a rise in coronavirus cases. Taking into account the composition of Tokyo’s economy, we estimate that a lockdown in the... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Mexico sleepwalking into a crisis? Mexico’s economy is likely to suffer a similar fall in output this year as it did during the Tequila Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. Despite its reticence, the government will ultimately have... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
