Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May) The Manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Asia remained weak in May but have been a poor guide to the hard data on activity over the past year anyway. However, the PMIs have been a decent guide to price... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP data unlikely to sway the Bank The weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP data and downward revision to fourth-quarter growth caused markets to price in a higher chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates next week... 31st May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump conviction won't sway the election We doubt that Donald Trump’s New York felony conviction on charges of falsifying business documents will have any significant impact on the presidential election campaign. 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to cut rates; SNB to sell FX assets? The key event next week will be Thursday’s ECB meeting when we think the Bank will cut the deposit rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. But strong services inflation in May and strong wage growth in Q1 may... 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q1) The 1.7% annualised gain in GDP in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank of Canada’s forecast for an above-potential 2.8% increase. With consumption growth looking much stronger than expected... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico heads to the polls, IMF’s optimism about Brazil Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday and, while Claudia Sheinbaum appears to be a shoo-in to win the presidency, attention will probably focus on the congressional results which will determine her... 31st May 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Apr.) As expected, the PCE deflator data suggest that, although not quite as bad as the first three months of the year, inflation was still running above target in April. At the same time, however, the real... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q1 2024) The GDP figures for Q1 confirm that India’s economy slowed a touch at the start of the year but was nonetheless still booming on the eve of the general election. Looking ahead, we expect economic... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2024) The strength in Turkey’s economy in Q1 – GDP expanded by a whopping 2.4% q/q – was driven by a large boost from net trade while private consumption growth slowed sharply. This offers signs that the... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reluctance to inflict pain comes back to bite the RBA We aren't convinced that the further pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator in April will be replicated in the quarterly measure that the Reserve Bank of Australia considers... 31st May 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (May 2024) The jump in the Caixin services PMI means that the survey data for May now suggest economic momentum remained fairly robust last month. We think strength in exports, a step-up in fiscal support and... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr. 24) On balance, the modest decline in industrial production and the rebound in retail sales in April point to a decent rebound in GDP this quarter. 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global growth to slow following strong Q1 The stronger than expected Q1 GDP data in several major economies suggest that the global economy got off to a strong start in 2024. But we expect global growth to fall back to a slightly below-trend... 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is expanding at a decent pace, with the manufacturing sector a key source of... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024) Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth holding up, but on unstable footing Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic momentum remains reasonably robust, fuelled by continued gains in manufacturing and a further recovery in services activity. A step-up in fiscal support... 30th May 2024 · 3 mins read
