Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s downturn, Peru & the IMF The early data for March supported our view that Mexico’s economy is suffering a fall in output that is at least as bad as it was during the Global Financial Crisis. And the government’s reluctance to... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore shutdown, new forecasts, Korea elections Singapore today become the latest country in Asia to announce strict new social distancing rules to slow the spread of the coronavirus. We estimate that the economy will be running at around 30% below... 3rd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Latest Italian data show huge falls in activity Activity in some large parts of Italy’s economy – including manufacturing – appears to be down by more than 50%. Even if the lockdown is relaxed in May, we think that GDP will fall by about 10% this... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Feb resilience, second wave of containment measures There is increasing speculation that some parts of Japan could face lockdowns in coming days. But consumer behaviour is already changing without formal restrictions being imposed, in response to the... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian States taking different approaches A nationwide lockdown has not been declared in Australia as we had expected, largely because daily new cases have declined. However, a number of the biggest states have taken it upon them selves to... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Early signs of lockdown impact in high frequency data A number of high-frequency indicators on electricity demand, vehicle production and traffic congestion all show that activity levels have plummeted since the nationwide lockdown began last week. The... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly SMEs, developers & exporters sitting out the recovery The first monthly data points for March add to broader evidence that activity began to bounce back last month. But the recovery already appears to be losing momentum and has been unevenly spread, with... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.5% rise in retail sales in February precedes the significant spread of the virus in Australia and we think consumption will fall sharply the coming months. 3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update GDP to drop by 25% during lockdowns The imposition of strict social distancing controls across the continent means that economic activity in the euro-zone is likely to slump even further than we had assumed two weeks ago. For the... 2nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook Slowest growth in four decades Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by just 1% in 2020, which would be the weakest pace... 2nd April 2020 · 13 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped to a four-month low in March and the reading has yet to capture the impact of the nationwide lockdown which began at the end of the month. April’s reading, and... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI strengthened last month from February’s abysmal levels and suggests that the contraction in activity has already bottomed out. But weak foreign demand and labour market... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs for Asia suggest that industry has been hit hard by the coronavirus, and we suspect the readings will deteriorate much further in the next couple of months. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) While the Q1 Tankan survey held up slightly better than we were expecting, it still showed a marked deterioration in business conditions. And with sentiment set to deteriorate further as lockdowns... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How quickly will the world economy rebound? The world is heading for the sharpest and deepest global slowdown since WW2. Assuming that the virus is brought under control within a few months, the subsequent rise in world GDP should also be sharp... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts (Q4) The confirmation that the economy stagnated in Q4 shows that it was very weak even before the spread of the coronavirus in the UK. We expect a 15% q/q fall in GDP in Q2 and things could easily be... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
