Japan Economics Weekly Falling profits, fiscal stimulus inflation The fiscal stimulus package announced this week is unlikely to lift growth meaningfully as most of the spending will merely offset the impact of previous stimulus measures unwinding. And with... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon crisis, OPEC+ meeting, Aramco IPO Lebanese banks will make some interest payments on FX deposits in local currency, which adds to the evidence that strains in the balance of payments are worsening. The risk of a debt restructuring and... 5th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3, breakdown) & Retail Sales (Oct.) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 confirmed that the economy remained sluggish, with net trade continuing to weigh on growth. And we doubt that things will get any better in the coming... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal stimulus won’t boost growth much The fiscal stimulus package unveiled today will include much less fresh spending than the headline suggests. And the bulk of the spending will merely offset the unwinding of previous stimulus measures... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) The stagnation in retail sales in October suggests that consumption growth remained sluggish in the fourth quarter. And while net exports should continue to support GDP growth, the weakness in... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Productivity growth may still be accelerating Recent payroll employment growth is likely to be revised down in the annual revision early next year, which is unquestionably a negative. But the flip-side is that productivity growth must have been... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.8% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in October provides early evidence that GDP growth in Q4 is shaping up to be a bit stronger than Q3’s 0.6% q/q. 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) November’s final euro-zone PMI is consistent with very anaemic GDP growth in Q4 and the national indices point to continued weakness in both Germany and Italy, while France and Spain remain relative... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP growth fell short of expectations in the third quarter and we think it will remain much weaker than most anticipate. As such, we reiterate our view that the RBA will cut interest rates in February... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Combatting global warming needn’t hold back global growth We do not believe that there has to be a trade-off between preventing global warming and achieving economic growth. Even so, there is a clear risk that the world fails to prevent a significant further... 3rd December 2019 · 28 mins read
Long Run Focus Combatting global warming needn’t hold back global growth We do not believe that there has to be a trade-off between preventing global warming and achieving economic growth. Even so, there is a clear risk that the world fails to prevent a significant further... 3rd December 2019 · 28 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2019) The slightly better-than-expected Brazilian Q3 GDP growth figure of 0.6% q/q adds to the evidence that the recovery is gaining some momentum. But growth remains soft, and the central bank is still... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: 2019 struggles set the scene for weak 2020 The sharp contraction in South African output in Q3 strengthened our view that trend growth in the country is flagging, and that GDP will only rise by a meagre 0.5% in 2020. 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s whole economy PMIs suggested that activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to strengthen, but with fiscal policy set to be tightened, this strength is unlikely to last... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.1 in November, from 48.3, left it close to the decade-low reached in September. Despite the improvement some of the alternative manufacturing... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November’s batch of manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe showed a slight improvement on October’s figures but nonetheless remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial output over the... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
