Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) The continued weakness of growth means that the central bank will likely opt for a more aggressive 50bp policy rate cut this afternoon. And while growth should recover from here, don’t expect a strong... 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s loosening cycle has further to run The Reserve Bank delivered a (slightly) larger-than-expected rate cut today and has left the door open for further easing. If soft surveys are correct in suggesting that there is limited slack in the... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (June) The 1.5% fall in German industrial production in June kills off any hopes that the strong orders data published yesterday marked the beginning of a recovery. On the contrary, with business surveys all... 7th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - 50 basis point cut not the end of easing by the RBNZ The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates dramatically to 1.0% at today’s monetary policy meeting. But given our more pessimistic forecasts of the New Zealand economy, we don’t think that the Bank is... 7th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun.) We estimate that net trade boosted GDP growth in Q2, providing a glimmer of hope amidst the bleak domestic outlook. 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jul.) July’s final euro-zone PMI is consistent with continued weak GDP growth at the start of Q3. And the PMI surveys also confirmed that Italy and Germany remain the currency union’s weak spots. While... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Investment slump has bottomed out Investment growth collapsed to a near four-year low in Q1. While a spectacular rebound will remain elusive, investment should recover gradually over the coming quarters as election-related uncertainty... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Indonesia has been suspiciously stable at around 5% over the past five years, and it was no surprise that it recorded another quarter of growth at close to this rate in the second... 5th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SEK to stay the G10 laggard; CHF causing headaches With the Swedish economy likely to flirt with recession in Q3, a dovish shift by the Riksbank is well overdue. So, having been the worst performing G10 currency against the euro this year to date, the... 2nd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) The jump in retail sales in June follows a fairly sharp contraction in May and feeble growth in April, and means that retail sales growth slowed in Q2 overall. With the boost from falling inflation... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Bond yields crashing to new lows Economic data this week confirmed that the Australian economy continues to underperform. Meanwhile, bond yields have been in freefall. In part, that reflects Governor Lowe’s comments last week that... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI & Manufacturing PMI (July) The unexpected fall in Swiss inflation in July, and signs of a deepening downturn in the industrial sector, will only strengthen the resolve of the SNB to resist the rising franc. There is a growing... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Mixed Q2 GDP figures, China tourism clampdown For the countries that have already reported second quarter GDP figures, the numbers have been a mixed bag – growth picked up in Korea and Taiwan, but slowed in Singapore and Hong Kong. We only have a... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jun./ Q2) The weakness in real retail sales in Q2 suggests consumption growth remained sluggish in the second quarter. That’s one reason why we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.8% in 2018 to just 1.5% this year... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest that industrial woes are far from over The further fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in July adds to the evidence that industry remained in the doldrums at the start of the third quarter, with forward-looking components suggesting... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The further decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-year low of 51.2 in July, from 51.7, confirms that the downturn in the factory sector continued into the third quarter, and suggests that... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read