India Economics Update Lockdown extension will require huge fiscal support PM Modi’s decision to extend the nationwide lockdown that was due to end today comes as no major surprise given that coronavirus cases in India continue to surge. With many households having no... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup agrees on lowest common denominator The Eurogroup’s agreement on €540bn, or 4.5% of GDP, of support for responses to the coronavirus crisis falls a long way short of the large-scale joint fiscal boost which many euro-zone governments... 10th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish recovery to be slow and protracted Economic activity in Spain has collapsed as a result of the measures to contain the coronavirus. And even if the government begins to lift some of the restrictions next week, as it has suggested, the... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial activity has collapsed Timely indicators on electricity demand, vehicle production and air quality strongly suggest that industrial activity has fallen off a cliff since the nationwide lockdown began on 25th March. These... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Expect the first negative GDP print in over 40 years China’s release next week of data for Q1 GDP will be perhaps the most remarkable of modern history. The statistics office often stands accused of smoothing fluctuations in GDP but we think it is... 9th April 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Economies in a stronger position to weather a new crisis Economies across Emerging Europe are heading for a sharp contraction in output, but one crumb of comfort is that vulnerabilities are drastically lower than they were in the run-up to the Global... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Between a rock and a hard place The nationwide lockdown is due to end on Tuesday but with recorded cases of the coronavirus still rising rapidly, only a partial scaling back of restrictions is likely. With large parts of the economy... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m fall in GDP in February will be the last figure that looks anything like “normal” for a while as the coronavirus lockdown will mean that in March and April GDP will fall at a speed and... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Credit rating downgrade wouldn’t be a big deal S&P lowered the Australian credit rating outlook to negative this week and given the likely deterioration in the fiscal balance, Australia could lose its AAA rating before long. But we don’t think... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Lockdowns to result in double-digit fall in GDP in Q2 The recent acceleration in the number of new coronavirus cases has prompted the government to declare a state of emergency this week. So far, Japan hasn’t moved to a full lockdown as people are still... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.) The collapse in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in March to its lowest level ever supports our view that consumption will fall off a cliff in Q2. Almost all indicators plummeted, suggesting the... 8th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Output to fall more than during global financial crisis Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay... 8th April 2020 · 19 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Feb.) The slight rise in machinery orders in February suggests that business investment was weathering virus-related disruption well back then. But with measures to contain the virus severely harming... 8th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Will the GDP figures fully capture the downturn? The upcoming GDP figures for developed markets will give an indication of the damage the coronavirus was already having by the end of the first quarter. However, even at the best of times, there are... 7th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Feb.) The small decline in the trade balance in February was the result of a sharp decline in exports being offset by a sharp decline in imports consistent with our view that domestic demand was set to... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Mar.) The drop in the PMI readings for March suggests that the economy had already lost momentum even before the nationwide lockdown was imposed towards the end of the month. More timely indicators suggest... 6th April 2020 · 2 mins read
