India Economics Focus Turning the corner in 2020 After a dreadful 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more decisive measures to deal with problems in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a healthier pace in... 17th December 2019 · 15 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to remain on side lines as economy heats up Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards... 16th December 2019 · 24 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The activity and spending indicators beat expectations. But retail sales and real estate activity are weaker than the headline figures suggest. And we think growth will resume its downward trend... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Government remains reluctant to loosen fiscal policy Australia’s government pledged to increase spending in today’s Budget update. And its pessimistic forecasts for nominal GDP growth suggest that tax revenue may continue to surprise on the upside... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) December’s flash manufacturing PMI indicates that activity in the sector continues to shrink. However, the rebound in the global manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector will turn a corner soon. 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s fiscal rule, US-China trade truce Adopting a more flexible fiscal target would give Indonesia’s government more room to support growth during periods of weak demand without threatening the country’s fiscal position. Meanwhile, Asian... 13th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Productivity outlook brighter for the next decade One of the biggest disappointments of this decade has been the stubborn weakness of global productivity growth. While we do not think that this is a permanent shift, a turn-around does not look... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Productivity outlook brighter for the next decade One of the biggest disappointments of this decade has been the stubborn weakness of global productivity growth. While we do not think that this is a permanent shift, a turn-around does not look... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Election eases Brexit handbrake but doesn’t release it While the majority secured by the Conservatives in the election clears the path to a Brexit deal being passed by 31 st January and fiscal policy being loosened in a Budget in February, the resulting... 13th December 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China trade deal, infrastructure spending A “Phase One” trade deal has reportedly been reached, including a larger-than-expected rollback of US tariffs. But the resulting boost to China’s economy will be modest and the deal still looks at... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus failing to boost confidence Business confidence should pick up before long as the global economy has turned the corner. Even so, we expect GDP growth to fall short of its potential over the coming year, which underpins our... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code improved, NBFC relief The amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and easing of lending rules for shadow banks that were approved in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of parliament) this week should provide limited... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan on prolonged hold Weak activity data suggest that GDP may have contracted by 1.0% q/q in the fourth quarter and we still expect the economy to shrink next year rather than expand as most anticipate. However, with the... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) The Q4 Tankan was a mixed bag rather than the disaster that many analysts were anticipating. As such, it probably won’t convince the Bank of Japan to ease policy next week. 13th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The fall in Mexican manufacturing output in October was largely due to the GM strike, but even if this were excluded the latest figures show weakness across key industrial sectors. This strengthens... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2020 Domestic headwinds will continue to weigh on growth next year, even as the external environment starts to improve. We expect this to trigger additional policy easing, with the PBOC likely to cut rates... 12th December 2019 · 4 mins read
