Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Mar.) While both industrial output and retail sales held up a little better than expected in March, they still fell sharply. And with efforts to contain the virus having been stepped up significantly in... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) Since the pandemic-related lockdowns only really began in earnest in the final two weeks of the quarter, the 4.8% annualised decline in GDP over the first quarter as-a-whole illustrates that activity... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The collapse in April’s Economic Sentiment Indicators to levels not recorded before in Central and Eastern Europe point to GDP falling by around 6.0% y/y at the start of Q2, more than twice as large... 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) and Euro-zone Bank Lending (Mar.) The largest-ever slump in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in April comes as no surprise but, along with the 3.9% q/q fall in Belgian GDP in Q1, it underlines the depth of the euro-zone’s recession... 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Length of lockdown and the implications for GDP With the reopening of the economy to be governed by the extent to which the coronavirus is brought under control and the burden being placed upon the NHS, there is still a lot of uncertainty about how... 29th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Steepest downturn since the 1980s Efforts to contain the coronavirus mean that the economies of the Middle East and North Africa will suffer their steepest downturn this year since the early 1980s. Draconian social distancing measures... 28th April 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) The relatively strong batch of Russian activity data for March suggest that GDP growth probably picked up a touch to 2.5% y/y in Q1. However, this largely reflects the fact that Russia was much slower... 27th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update The fallout from the Franklin Templeton wind down The RBI’s new special liquidity window should help ease redemption pressure on Indian mutual funds, which have come under strain since Franklin Templeton’s announcement on Thursday that it has been... 27th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal delay, rupee drop, Franklin Templeton A second fiscal stimulus package appears close but, a month after the lockdown started, any further measures now will probably arrive too late to prevent an annual contraction in growth this year... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Panic buying and job losses Activity data for March showed that the economy held up better in Q1 than we had initially anticipated. Even so, new weekly labour market data point to a sharp deterioration in April, consistent with... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: what impact will easing the shutdown have? Vietnam has started to lift some of the shutdown measures that were introduced to slow the spread of the coronavirus, but this won’t prevent the export-dependent economy from slowing sharply this year... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 5.1% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in March was the largest on record and suggests that household consumption declined by at least 4% q/q in Q1. However, as the corona virus lockdown was only... 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s push to reshore production won’t succeed The government is encouraging manufacturers to return production of components from their overseas subsidiaries to Japan. Given the large scale of production that is now located abroad, a major... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Apr.) The slump in the composite PMI to a record-low in April points to GDP falling by at least 7% in Q2, but we think the survey is understating the severity of the downturn. 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1, provisional) Economic activity in Korea fell by the most since 2008 last quarter and unfortunately there is much worse to come. With the external environment weighing heavily on export demand, a much deeper... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
