China Economics Weekly Foreign factories struggle, HK stimulus not enough A slump in exports by foreign firms is behind much of the recent slowdown in industrial production. While Chinese officials may appreciate the irony of foreign-owned factories being the worst hit by... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Malaysia picked up in Q2, but we doubt this is the start of a sustained rebound. We are forecasting a renewed slowdown in the second half of this year, driven by weaker consumer spending... 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Key takeaways from PM Modi’s media interview In a rare media interview published this week, Prime Minister Modi discussed several economic issues. Among the key takeaways, it is clear that the government wants policy to be loosened even further... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly What drove strong consumer spending in Q2? While many commentators have attributed the strength in Q2 consumer spending to purchases being brought forward ahead of the sales tax hike, we think it had more to do with the longer-than-usual... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for labour market remains challenging The recent weakness in economic activity should start to weigh on jobs growth before long, pushing up the unemployment rate further and resulting in weaker wage growth. While a softer labour market... 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2019) Colombian GDP growth remained strong in Q2 at 3.0% y/y, and we’ve revised up our forecast for 2019 from 2.0% to 2.8%. But we still think that the consensus forecasts are too optimistic. 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The soft July industrial production data show that the manufacturing recession continued into the third quarter. But the latest surveys provide some reason for optimism and, as the retail sales data... 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The rout in Argentine markets is likely to push the economy back into recession. We now expect GDP to contract by 3% over this year as a whole (our previous forecast was -2.0%) and inflation to breach... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Tanzania: Growth set to slow After picking up a touch this year, we think that economic growth in Tanzania will slow in 2020 and in 2021. President John Magufuli’s increasingly erratic policymaking will deter investment while... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Slowdown still more likely outcome than recession We still anticipate a modest economic downturn rather than a recession, but the spreading weakness in other parts of the global economy has increased the danger of an outright economic contraction in... 14th August 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Protests to push Hong Kong into a recession Disruptions from the ongoing protests look set to pull down Hong Kong’s GDP growth to its lowest since the global financial crisis this quarter and there is a growing risk of an even worse outcome if... 14th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Tepid recovery in Q2, rate cut still likely June retail sales figures released today added to the evidence that the economy returned to growth in Q2. But the recovery was soft – we estimate around 1.6% q/q saar – and we still think that... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q2), E-Z Industrial Production (June) The decline in German GDP in Q2 and sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production in June provide further evidence of the severity of the slowdown in Europe. What’s more, a deteriorating global... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2019) The strength of the Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe suggests that domestic demand continued to offset the impact of euro-zone weakness. However, there are signs that soft external demand is... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The Great Asian Moderation Emerging Asia has not only been the fastest growing region since the global financial crisis, it has also been the most stable. Regional growth has also been less volatile compared with the period... 14th August 2019 · 13 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) After improving in June, economic conditions worsened across the board last month as growth in industrial production, capital spending and retail sales all dropped back. We see more weakness on the... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read