Asia Economics Update Raising our GDP forecast for Vietnam A sharp slowdown in Vietnam this year is unavoidable, but with the virus contained and with exports holding up better than might have been expected, we are raising our 2020 GDP growth forecast... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Reforms through the back door Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Reforms through the back door in India Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest the worst may be over for EM industry While we would interpret the May PMIs with caution, the small rise in the EM manufacturing PMI last month tallies with high-frequency indicators and suggests that EM activity is probably past the... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slow industrial recovery May’s PMIs offer evidence that the global industrial sector is now on the slow road to recovery. But with demand extremely weak, activity is still far below normal levels and price pressures have... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: Q2 collapse to be followed by weak recovery Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy held up relatively well in Q1, but more timely low-profile data point to a collapse in activity in Q2. And, as lockdown measures are eased, the onset of... 1st June 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in the business activity component of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI shows that conditions in the sector improved in May, having come almost to a standstill in April. With manufacturing... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs repeat the message from the ESIs released last week that activity in the region rebounded in May but remained at subdued levels. As lockdowns continue to be lifted and external... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The nature of the PMI surveys makes them tricky to interpret in the current environment, but we think May’s manufacturing reading indicates that activity in the sector edged up slightly last month... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (May) The PMIs show that the recovery in activity extended into last month and appears to have broadened out into parts of manufacturing that were previously struggling. But there are few signs of a marked... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) We suspect that PMI readings do not accurately reflect the change in industry conditions last month, but they are still indicative of the fact that output remains very depressed. 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) According to the official GDP data, India’s economy held up rather well in Q1 as a whole given that a stringent lockdown was imposed in the second half of March. But the data are increasingly subject... 29th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2020) The 1.5% q/q fall in Brazilian GDP in Q1 highlights that the economy had slipped into a deep downturn by March, even though the country was slow to impose lockdown measures. And more timely figures... 29th May 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slow path to normality, still on track for more QE The government’s plans for a progressive opening up of non-essential stores in June suggest that the low point for the economy is behind us. But with the damage caused by the lockdown measures likely... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions The central government’s decision to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong risks undermining the city’s economic success and the US response may add to those headwinds. More broadly, the... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
