Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Bushfires may reduce Q1 GDP by 0.1% The deadly bushfires that are ravaging Australia are first and foremost a human tragedy. But there are economic effects to consider, too. We suspect that the impact on consumption and working hours... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind the weakness in the Gulf? The Gulf states are likely to have recorded their second weakest pace of aggregate growth since the global financial crisis in 2019 due to oil output cuts and poor performances from non-oil sectors... 7th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) Whole economy PMIs for December suggested that activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector slowed at the end of last year, a sign that fresh fiscal austerity is already starting to take its toll... 6th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The further decline in the ISM manufacturing index in December, to its lowest level since June 2009, at face value suggests the US economy is teetering on the brink of recession. But it’s hard to put... 3rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian inflation, Polish MPC, IMF slates Turkey The drop in Russian inflation in December, combined with comments from the central bank governor, support our view that there will be at least one more interest rate cut in the current easing cycle... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil price spike, strong growth to continue in Vietnam Oil prices have jumped following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most powerful generals, but they would need to rise much further before higher prices started to have a major impact on... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring house prices won’t prevent further easing Australia’s house prices rose the most in a decade last quarter and leading indicators suggest they will keep growing at an annual rate of more than 10%. However, there are no signs that households... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly GDP still likely to shrink this year The economy appears to have weathered October’s sales tax hike better than many had feared. But with industrial production set to record the steepest quarterly fall since the Great East Japan... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: initial GDP estimate provides little value The initial estimate of Q4 GDP suggests Singapore’s economy remains in the doldrums. However, the numbers are based on preliminary data from only the first two months of the quarter and are not... 2nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s batch of manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial production growth over the coming months, although there are tentative signs that... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) improved slightly in December, which is consistent with our view that while regional growth remains weak, it has at least bottomed out. 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in December suggests that the manufacturing sector has recovered from its weakness last year and supports our view that the recent economic slowdown has run its... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Dec.) The manufacturing PMIs ended 2019 higher than where they started the year but we doubt this means the worst is over for China’s economy. While it does appear that export growth is bottoming out... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The 0.1% m/m decline in October’s monthly GDP was partly due to disruption in the motor vehicle sector caused by the GM strike south of the border, but retail and wholesale GDP also contracted. 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor Positive signs in November Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth picked up last month. That’s a challenge to our expectations of a slowdown in growth in 2020. But the resilience of property construction still... 20th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for disappointing recovery in 2020 EM activity slowed at the start of Q4 and aggregate growth in 2019 as a whole is likely to be the weakest since 2015. Conditions should improve in 2020, but we think growth across many EMs will... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
