China Economics Weekly What to watch at the NPC The 2020 growth target (or lack of one!) will be announced next Friday at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and will signal how confident the leadership is in a strong rebound and the degree to... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Interpreting business surveys in a crisis Our best guess is that business surveys, such as the PMIs, understated falls in activity in April and we suspect that the next batch of surveys, released as early as next week, will do so again in May... 14th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The collapse in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in March add to the evidence that, even though the government refrained from imposing draconian lockdown measures, the economy probably... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Will stimulus push up government financing costs? The new fiscal stimulus will substantially push up India’s already-high public debt ratio. Policymakers may have to resort to unusual steps to keep borrowing costs in check, including further... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) The slump in euro-zone industrial output in March came as no surprise given the extremely weak national data already published. Worse is to come in April before the sector begins to gradually recover. 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Mar. & Q1) March’s GDP figures showed that the UK economy was in freefall as soon as the coronavirus lockdown began. And with all the restrictions in place until mid-May, and then only lifted very slightly... 13th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.) The further fall in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in April underlines that consumption will be extremely weak across Q2. But while all components fell to new depths, this should mark the trough... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) Malaysia Q1 GDP figures were slightly better than expected but will provide little comfort, with the economy set to contract much more sharply this quarter as depressed domestic demand and an... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Bank will cut rates into negative territory before long The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) massively expanded its annual target for asset purchases at its meeting today and we still think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory before long. 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: lockdown extension to delay recovery With its lockdown being extended again today, the Philippines faces at least two more weeks before the economic recovery will begin. We think GDP will contract by 6% this year, which would make it one... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery a long way off Industrial output slumped in March and more timely evidence from the manufacturing PMI, electricity consumption and vehicle production strongly suggest that the sector has come to a near standstill in... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The 5% y/y drop in Mexican industrial production in March is largely old news, but the breakdown of the headline figure was more noteworthy and suggests that the manufacturing sector has been hit... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s border closure will hit harder in Q2 The border closure will result in a collapse in revenue from foreign tourists and a marked fall in revenue from foreign students in Q2. And while the government will probably allow foreign students to... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending, trade talks, renminbi In a sign that consumption is still being held back by concerns over the virus and households’ finances, domestic tourism spending during the Labour Day holiday was down 60% y/y despite the fact that... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Easing of restrictions lays ground for rebound in H2 Australia’s government unveiled its roadmap for the reopening of the economy on Friday, which lays the ground for a strong recovery in consumption and output in the third quarter. However, we are less... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Partial reopening doing little to boost activity While the nationwide lockdown has been extended again, the latest phase includes a significant relaxation of containment measures in areas less affected by the virus. In principle, this should ease... 8th May 2020 · 5 mins read
