Japan Economics Weekly Diminishing capacity shortages won’t prompt rate cuts Capacity shortages remained pronounced on the eve on the sales tax hike. And even though we expect the output gap to decline a bit over the coming months, that probably won’t trigger additional easing... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Some good news for Q4 but 2020 still looks soft Trade and retail sales data for November both provided some reason to be optimistic about GDP growth in Q4. But looking past the positive headlines, we still think the outlook for domestic demand in... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus increasingly likely A ramping up of anti-government protests and advanced estimates showing GDP growth dropped to its weakest rate since the global financial crisis in FY19/20 increases the pressure on the finance... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Nov.) The strongest rise in retail sales in two years could be a sign that tax refunds and interest rate cuts are finally boosting spending. But with consumer confidence falling to fresh lows, we doubt it... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jan.) The chances of a recession in 2020 are still barely higher than the normal background risk. Our composite 12 month ahead probit model – based on the yield curve, financial conditions and various... 9th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update France a European bright spot despite slower growth The French economy is likely to continue to perform reasonably well this year as solid consumer spending growth partly offsets fiscal tightening and a slowdown in investment. Moreover, the pensions... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico CPI (Dec.) & Brazil Ind. Production (Nov.) Mexican inflation eased again in December, supporting our view that policymakers will continue to cut rates this year. Elsewhere, the larger-than-expected 1.2% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Another technical recession looks likely South Africa’s manufacturing sector was struggling even before December’s power cuts, so production almost certainly fell in Q4. Given weakness in other sectors, we think that South Africa slipped... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) While the increase in industrial production in November comes as a bit of a relief, it merely reversed the decline in the previous month and still means that output is likely to have fallen again in... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) The sharp rise in the trade balance in November is consistent with the contribution from net exports to GDP growth rising sharply in the fourth quarter but the weakness in imports suggests domestic... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update ISM too downbeat on manufacturing outlook The continued slide in the ISM manufacturing index is increasingly hard to explain, but the wider evidence suggests the more upbeat Markit manufacturing PMI is providing a more accurate gauge of... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) lthough the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up again in December, the index still suggests that economic growth in the region was very weak at the end of last year. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI edged lower in December, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4 and raising the prospect of another technical recession. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Growth to fall short of expectations The sales tax hike has not been as damaging as many had feared. But we remain more pessimistic about the outlook for global growth and domestic investment than most. That explains why we expect GDP to... 8th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Consumer confidence edged up in December and suggests that consumption continues to recover from the slump after October’s sales tax hike. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
