Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (May) The small pick-up in the composite PMI in May suggests that activity is no longer collapsing as dramatically as it was in April, but the survey doesn’t point to a rebound in output yet. 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Bank of Thailand? With the economy in a massive slump and prices falling sharply, today’s decision by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut interest rates by a further 25bp to a new all-time low of 0.50% came as no... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) Machinery orders held up surprisingly well in March but we already know from the national accounts that business investment was sputtering at the end of Q1 with much darker skies awaiting in Q2. 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s downturn worse than we feared The weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP figure, coupled with signs that Q2 is shaping up to be worse than we had initially thought, has prompted us to revise down our estimate for the fall in Colombian GDP... 19th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2020) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth to 1.6% y/y in Q1 almost certainly failed to capture the extent of virus containment measures as the government did not implement lockdown measures until late-March... 19th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) While Chile’s economy grew strongly in Q1, this was largely due to favourable base effects resulting from strikes in Q4, and hides a sharp deterioration in activity in March. We expect a steep... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia to recover faster than elsewhere Most economies in Emerging Asia will experience falls in GDP of 10-20% in the first half of the year, which is similar to what we expect in most other parts of the world. However, with many in the... 18th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) Figures released today show the slump in Thailand’s economy was less severe than expected last quarter, but this will provide little comfort, Q2 data are set be much worse. 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) The fall in output in the first quarter suggests the spread of the virus had already dealt a significant blow to economic activity in March with much worse to come in Q2. A double-digit fall in GDP is... 18th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 11.2% m/m fall in industrial production in April was bigger than at any point in the index’s 100-year history, including the Great Depression, the end of World War 2 and the Global Financial... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The Q1 GDP data confirm that virus containment measures have caused much bigger declines in activity in some euro-zone countries than in others. Over the rest of the year, we think that there will be... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the stimulus measures After weeks of inaction, the government has made a splash with its new support package by spreading the details across three separate announcements (and counting) this week. But as more details emerge... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Green shoots after Golden Week holiday Economic activity remained severely damaged by coronavirus containment efforts in early May. In particular, the retail sector usually receives a substantial boost during Golden Week but the number of... 15th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rebound in activity to underwhelm The government has now ended the state of emergency in prefectures accounting for around 60% of economic activity. As such, economic activity is set to rebound. However, we expect the recovery to... 15th May 2020 · 8 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) Industrial output and investment rose year-on-year in April for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak. But retail sales and services activity continued to contract, held back by high unemployment... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
