Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The small rise in euro-zone industrial production in November was nowhere near enough to reverse the previous month’s decline, so Q4 is likely to have been yet another weak quarter for the region’s... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2019) News that the German economy expanded by 0.6% last year, down from 1.5% in 2018, suggests that it narrowly avoided another contraction in Q4. Nonetheless, we think that GDP is unlikely to expand... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s boom has further to run in 2020 Hungary’s economy is likely to lose some steam this year, but loose policy will ensure that growth remains above potential. This will keep inflation high and economic imbalances will continue to build... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Mortgage defaults may keep rising Banks’ housing lending standards remain tight. But this hasn’t prevented housing arrears from climbing to fresh highs as household balance sheets are stretched. And given that we expect the... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: stuck in the slow lane The prevailing view that this will be the year when Brazil’s recovery finally shifts up a gear looks overly optimistic. We expect that GDP growth will come in at just 1.5% over 2020, which leaves us... 14th January 2020 · 12 mins read
US Economics Update Tide starting to turn for business investment There is mounting evidence to suggest that business investment growth is set to rebound, which should help drive overall GDP growth back above its potential pace in the second half of this year. 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) The Turkish industrial production and retail sales figures for November were a mixed bag but, on balance, suggest that the economy gathered pace in Q4. Looser policy means that we think the economy... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The small improvement in the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in December suggests household spending was slow to recover from October’s sales tax hike. Both household-related activity and employment... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Chances of policy easing diminishing The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged when its forthcoming meeting concludes on 21st January as recent data have mostly been reassuring. And while we expect the... 14th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Nov.) The sharp decline in GDP in December is partly due to some activity being brought forward before the 31st October Brexit deadline. Nonetheless it leaves the economy on course to stagnate or contract... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: what to expect from Tsai’s second term and beyond The two key economic challenges facing Tsai Ing-wen in her second and final term as Taiwan’s president are the deteriorating demographic outlook and the long-term decline in productivity growth. A... 13th January 2020 · 14 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The sharper-than-expected turnaround in industrial production growth in November is a breath of fresh air for India’s economy and supports our view that the economic slowdown has probably bottomed out... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Nov.) Strong Brazilian inflation – which jumped to 4.3% y/y last month – and signs that the economy is on a firmer footing, suggest that the further interest rate cuts some still expect in early 2020 won’t... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Diminishing capacity shortages won’t prompt rate cuts Capacity shortages remained pronounced on the eve on the sales tax hike. And even though we expect the output gap to decline a bit over the coming months, that probably won’t trigger additional easing... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
