India Economics Weekly Looser restrictions risk faster virus spread PM Modi is likely to extend the lockdown when he addresses the nation on Sunday as there is little indication of the virus being contained. However, restrictions are set to be eased significantly... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The huge fall in industrial production and retail sales in April support our below-consensus forecast that the economy will contract by 12% q/q this quarter. The unemployment rate is also set to... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Some thoughts on the lasting damage from the crisis The euro-zone is not suffering from excessive leverage among banks and households, or slow and counter-productive responses from policymakers, which held back its recovery from the last two crises... 28th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) May’s Economic Sentiment indicators suggest that the easing of lockdowns only provided a limited boost to the Central and Eastern Europe economies. The surveys are still consistent with a fall in GDP... 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q1) We estimate that private investment was broadly flat in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure point to a sharp downturn in investment in the coming months. 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns, infection rates and the EM recovery Large parts of Emerging Asia have controlled the virus exceptionally well, which should allow activity to recover quicker than in most other EMs. In contrast, many countries in Latin America are still... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: boost from pharma sector will not last A surge in pharmaceutical production has provided a significant boost to Singapore’s economy over the past couple of months, but this is likely to prove temporary and will not prevent a massive... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1) A very strong performance from the biomedical manufacturing sector meant that Singapore’s economy contracted much less in Q1 than previously thought. But with a stringent lockdown in place at home and... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: deeper downturn, but fast recovery Q1 GDP data from Peru suggest that its lockdown is having a bigger impact on activity than measures elsewhere in Latin America. And with new infections in Peru surging in recent weeks, we are revising... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ramps up virus response, more easing in store The RBI has further stepped up its response to the collapse in economic activity from the coronavirus and containment measures in another emergency announcement today. The central bank has also left... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong imports, Kansai gets back up and running The resilience of imports in both March and April has prompted us to significantly revise up our forecast for Q2 goods and services imports. However, the nature of the current downturn means that... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recovery will be gradual and bumpy Despite the slump in retail sales in April, consumption is unlikely to fall as much as we had anticipated across the current quarter. However, daily data suggest that the pace of recovery is very... 22nd May 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC delivers on policy stimulus We had anticipated that the National People’s Congress (NPC) would lay out plans for a further ramp up in policy support and it did not disappoint. The annual budget points to fiscal stimulus this... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Transport services resume, Cyclone Amphan The government’s decision to allow some travel services to resume will provide a small boost to economic activity, but there is a substantial risk that this will lead to a further spread in virus... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China decoupling, property prices, trade outlook The main event this week is the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) later today. We’ll publish our analysis of the key NPC reports once they are released. The NPC aside, US-China tensions... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad is the outlook for Indonesia? Indonesia is making much slower progress than others in the region in containing the spread of the coronavirus. This will hold back the economic recovery. We are cutting our GDP growth forecast for... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
