Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4, provisional) GDP growth rebounded more strongly than expected at the end of last year, and the economy should continue to stage a recovery over the coming quarters. The strong outturn in Q4 means we no longer... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook A fitful recovery Growth in most Latin American economies should strengthen in 2020, but we expect that these recoveries will be slow and fragile. Indeed, the region is likely to be the worst performing part of the... 21st January 2020 · 26 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to accelerate in 2020 The Fed’s interest rate cuts, a truce in the trade war, and a more positive global backdrop have all set the stage for an acceleration in economic growth this year. We calculate that GDP growth was a... 21st January 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4) Taiwan’s economy picked up steam again last quarter, and with the economy continuing to benefit from the trade war, we expect growth to remain strong throughout 2020. 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s recovery rests on shaky foundations Policy loosening will drive a stronger recovery in Turkey’s economy than most expect this year, but this is likely to come at the cost of higher inflation, a widening current account deficit and falls... 21st January 2020 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Mining’s dominance to end regardless of bushfires We doubt that the bushfire crisis will prompt a major shift in the Australian government’s attitude towards the mining industry. But the sector’s importance is set to decline either way as mining... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.3% fall in industrial production in December was entirely due to a weather-related slump in utilities output. The latest surveys suggest that the tentative recovery in manufacturing output is a... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Data distortions make the MPC’s job more difficult A flurry of weak data this week has sent money markets into a tailspin. But we suspect that the MPC will just about look past the Brexit and election related distortions and will probably hold off... 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook for euro-zone exports still subdued The Phase One trade deal between the US and China is not a game changer for Europe. We still expect euro-zone export growth to remain fairly slow this year as the global economy expands less quickly... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly US-China trade deal headwind to export growth The trade deal between the US and China may improve confidence in Australia helping end the drag from private investment. But prospects of a deal probably also contributed to the appreciation in the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Economic activity picked up last month, helping to avert a further slowdown last quarter. But despite the recent uptick in activity, we think it is premature to call the bottom of the current economic... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Stagflation concerns are overdone There has been growing talk of “stagflation” in India following the release of December’s CPI data this week, which showed that headline inflation jumped to a five-year high. But we think these... 17th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recession still likely, despite stronger November Strong November retail sales figures suggest that South Africa’s economy gained ground in the middle of Q4. Given power cuts in December, however, we expect that output still fell over the quarter as... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Nov.) The surge in “core” machinery orders in November was largely due to a spike in transport and postal activities and we still expect non-residential investment to fall this year. Orders of manufacturing... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
