Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) Russia’s economy appears to have had a slightly softer start to Q2, with industrial production and retail sales growth both slowing in April. Still, the latest indicators for May have remained strong... 5th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (May 2024) The rise in the ISM services index to 53.8 in May, from 49.4, meant that the weighted ISM index rebounded last month, despite a decline in the manufacturing index. That still leaves it consistent with... 5th June 2024 · 1 min read
Event Spotlight 2024: US outperformance and the future of macro and markets leadership 1718265600 The global economy has been marked by the outperformance of the US economy and its financial markets. But past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2024) The sharp pick-up in Brazil’s GDP growth to 0.8% q/q in Q1 is a temporary rebound from a weak patch in the second half of last year and doesn’t mark the start of a strong recovery. Still, the pace of... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (May ‘24) May’s batch of PMIs showed that private non-oil sectors have remained a point of strength in the Gulf economies at the mid-point of Q2 and this is likely to remain the case over the rest of this year... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2024) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the first quarter of the year and the latest evidence suggests that fragility has continued into Q2. A less acute drag from loadshedding should support... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Exports to remain a near-term prop to growth Global demand is giving a bigger boost to China’s economy than we had anticipated this year and foreign tariffs will make little difference to aggregate export performance in the near term. We now... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Window for policy tightening is closing A rebound in real household incomes should ensure that the recent slump in output should turn into above-trend GDP growth of 1% over the next couple of years. Regardless, inflation will continue to... 4th June 2024 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing performance strong but uneven The EM manufacturing PMI remained at a three-year high in May but the picture is becoming increasingly nuanced at a country level. Meanwhile, the PMIs also showed price pressures rose again last month... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to a rebound in global industry in Q2 The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in global industry has continued to gather momentum so far in Q2 and that price pressures have increased somewhat. But that probably won’t... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC+ decision to keep a lid on Gulf economies’ growth The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower over the rest of this year means that oil sectors in the Gulf will grow more slowly than we had previously anticipated and we have revised down our... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2024) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index in May adds to the sense that the economy is losing momentum, while the drop back in the prices paid index should soothe concerns about a potential renewed rise... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update France rating downgrade won’t be the last With the government debt-to-GDP ratio likely to trend up over the medium term, and the budget deficit set to stay above 3% of GDP, we suspect that France will be subject to further rating downgrades... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI plummeted in May and, while we expect conditions to improve as the electricity situation continues to stabilise, alongside recent activity data it underlines the... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May show a divergence in the region, with conditions improving slightly in Czechia and Russia’s economy continuing to boom. But industry weakened sharply in Poland and... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
