Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Homebuyer grants won’t prevent falling house prices The government today unveiled a grant for buyers of new homes. While grants for first-time home buyers boosted home sales during the global financial crisis, the new scheme won’t offset the impact of... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.) The slump in retail sales in April should be followed by a strong rebound as restrictions are eased. However, both exports and imports will remain weak as the border closure weighs on services trade. 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of lockdown damage as outlook worsens The latest activity data suggest that stringent lockdowns are causing especially deep falls in GDP in Peru and Argentina. But with the region as a whole struggling to contain outbreaks, and limited... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone incomes will be hit harder than US On the face of it, the surge in unemployment in the US implies that households are being hit harder by the crisis than those in Europe. But much of this reflects differences in the way that furloughed... 3rd June 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The 18.8% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in April was not as calamitous as we and most others had feared, but it still highlights that GDP will fall dramatically in Q2 – perhaps by 10-12%... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) Whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa rose compared with last month’s ultra-low levels as lockdown measures began to be eased, but activity remained very weak. And against... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1) The sharp fall in Swiss GDP is Q1 was in line with the general pattern seen in other countries, and Q2 is set to be much worse. However, now that lockdown restrictions have been eased, we suspect that... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (May) Interpreting the PMI surveys in the current environment is tricky, but the small rise in May’s services PMI suggests to us that activity has edged up very slightly. Nevertheless, fears over infection... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - GDP (Q1) GDP was falling before the bulk of the virus restrictions were in place and is set to fall more sharply in Q2 before picking up gradually in the second half of the year. 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Raising our GDP forecast for Vietnam A sharp slowdown in Vietnam this year is unavoidable, but with the virus contained and with exports holding up better than might have been expected, we are raising our 2020 GDP growth forecast... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Reforms through the back door Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Reforms through the back door in India Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest the worst may be over for EM industry While we would interpret the May PMIs with caution, the small rise in the EM manufacturing PMI last month tallies with high-frequency indicators and suggests that EM activity is probably past the... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slow industrial recovery May’s PMIs offer evidence that the global industrial sector is now on the slow road to recovery. But with demand extremely weak, activity is still far below normal levels and price pressures have... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: Q2 collapse to be followed by weak recovery Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy held up relatively well in Q1, but more timely low-profile data point to a collapse in activity in Q2. And, as lockdown measures are eased, the onset of... 1st June 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in the business activity component of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI shows that conditions in the sector improved in May, having come almost to a standstill in April. With manufacturing... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
