Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to ease further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut interest rates today, and with the economy being hit hard by a slump in tourist arrivals as well as disruption to its industrial sector as the coronavirus continues to... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Investment booms in CEE likely to come to an end The investment booms that provided a key support to Central and Eastern Europe probably peaked last year. This is one reason why we think that regional GDP growth will slow in 2020-21. 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How will the coronavirus affect Indonesia? Indonesia’s direct ties to China are relatively small, which makes the economy less vulnerable to the spread of the coronavirus than other countries in Emerging Asia. The main channel through which... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s batch of whole economy PMIs suggested that activity in non-oil sectors in the Gulf slowed at the start of the year. Meanwhile, underlying price pressures seem to be building in Egypt, but we... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid January PMIs yet to capture coronavirus hit The January batch of EM manufacturing PMIs generally held up well, but the surveys are yet to capture the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak. Extended factory closures in China are likely... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Annual GDP (2019) The Russian full-year GDP growth figure of 1.3% in 2019 was well below 2018’s outturn of 2.5%, but the figures suggest that growth accelerated a little further in the final quarter of last year, to 1... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial sectors over the coming months. Elsewhere, the jump in Turkey’s PMI to a 22-month high leaves it... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped further in January, adding to the evidence that the economy remained very weak at the start of 2020. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How important is Chinese tourism? Chinese international tourist spending has surged over the past decade, which is one reason to think that the economic spillovers will be greater for the coronavirus than they were for SARS. But... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy continued to contract last quarter and the Coronavirus outbreak will probably keep the city in recession for a while longer. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India’s manufacturing PMI surged in January to an eight-year high and defied the trend across the rest of Asia. Though the reading may fall back as fears over the coronavirus dents sentiment, the big... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) While the Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down last month, the survey was conducted too early to tell us much about the extent of the economic damage from the Coronavirus outbreak. The February survey... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Korea Trade (Jan.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) and Korean trade data were mostly unchanged in January, but neither give a good indication of how the coronavirus has hit the regional economy most recently. With... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Finance ministry loosens the purse strings The finance ministry set aside notions of near term fiscal consolidation by announcing additional stimulus in the FY20/21 union budget. That should help to support economic growth over the coming... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery from weak Q4 will be slow and gradual The raft of Q4 GDP data published this week were weaker than we or the consensus had expected. While the surveys for January show a small improvement in sentiment and activity, they are still... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus to hit EM growth Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth stabilised in Q4, but it will no doubt weaken sharply in Q1. The coronavirus has already dealt a significant blow to China’s economy, and other EMs... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
