Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4 2019) Colombian GDP growth ticked down to 3.4% y/y in Q4 from 3.5% y/y in Q3 and we think that growth will slow further this year. The consensus expectations for growth look too optimistic. 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Emp. (Q4) Given that the German economy stagnated in Q4 last year it will have come as a relief that GDP growth for the euro-zone as a whole was not revised down from +0.1% q/q. We think that Germany will... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2019) The weak batch of Q4 GDP data for Central & Eastern Europe show that the downturn in Germany took a bigger toll on growth across the region. Prolonged weakness in the euro-zone and softer domestic... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Extended travel ban threatens education exports Australia has extended its ban on travellers from mainland China until 22 nd February. Given that many universities begin teaching again on 24 th February, there is a growing risk that the travel ban... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Debt sustainability, early evidence of coronavirus drag The ratio of Japan’s public debt to GDP will probably keep rising over the coming decades. But with the Bank of Japan set to keep a lid on borrowing costs, it’s hard to make the case that public debt... 14th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Long Run Focus The new wave of technological progress We side with the optimists regarding the chances of another major technological step forward, although we can only guess at the timing. We expect the US to remain at the forefront of these advances... 13th February 2020 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Update How big will the disruption be to Asian supply chains? Factory shutdowns in China are starting to have significant knock-on effects on the rest of the region as companies struggle to source intermediate goods. The garment and electronics sectors are... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak Q4 sets up soft start for 2020 December’s misleadingly strong mining figures shouldn’t distract from evidence that GDP probably contracted in Q4, tipping the country into a recession and creating a very weak starting point for 2020... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected Turkish activity data for December suggest that the economic recovery gathered steam in the final quarter of last year. Looser fiscal and monetary policy will keep the... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Consumption growth to remain muted this year Rising housing wealth may encourage households to spend a larger share of their incomes. But we expect income growth to weaken again as jobs growth slows and rising unemployment keeps a lid on wage... 13th February 2020 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Infrastructure spending takes pressure off RBNZ The New Zealand government’s $12 billion infrastructure package should contribute to a pick-up in business investment and GDP growth from the second half of this year. That supports our view that... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus The economic impact of the new coronavirus in China China’s economy is likely to contract sharply in the first quarter, as a result of the measures that have been taken to limit the spread of the new coronavirus. The apparent slowdown in new infections... 12th February 2020 · 16 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Inflation rose faster than most expected in January due to a jump in core inflation. With an economic recovery around the corner, underlying price pressures should strengthen further over the coming... 12th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) GDP growth in Malaysia slowed again in Q4 and the disruption to trade and tourism flows from the coronavirus outbreak is likely to cause a much sharper downturn this quarter. The Prime Minister’s... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexico’s industrial sectors weakened again in December, capping a poor year and creating a weak starting point for 2020. The available surveys suggest that conditions remained difficult more recently. 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Dec.) The South African manufacturing sector’s terrible performance in December has set up a weak start to 2020. And, given that power cuts lasted into January, problems in the sector probably continued. 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
