Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to stick to its guns We have long argued that Japan’s economy will shrink this year and the recent string of bad news has only made that outcome more likely. But we still don’t expect the Bank of Japan to respond with... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Feb.) The renewed drop in the manufacturing PMI coupled with a slump in the services PMI suggests that the coronavirus has started to take a toll on Japan’s economy. 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Feb.) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of February add to the evidence that factory closures in China are disrupting local industry. 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) January’s batch of Russian activity data suggest that GDP growth was broadly steady at around 1.8% y/y. While some of the recent props to growth have started to fade, policy support is likely to... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economic impact of coronavirus to worsen With the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Korea jumping sharply over the past few days, the Bank of Korea is almost certain to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4 2019) While pharmaceuticals output supported Swiss manufacturing again in Q4, conditions in the rest of the sector weakened at the end of last year. With the German industrial recession likely to drag on... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Three key questions on the Vodafone dispute The Supreme Court’s ruling that Vodafone’s joint venture in India must pay up to US$7bn in retrospective levies and penalties has grabbed headlines over the past few days. In this Update, we answer... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Dec.) & External Trade (Jan.) Exports fell by less than expected last month but net trade is set to be a major drag on GDP growth this quarter. Coronavirus-related disruption should contribute to net trade knocking around 0.6%pts... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus The new wave of technological progress We side with the optimists regarding the chances of another major technological step forward, although we can only guess at the timing. We expect the US to remain at the forefront of these advances... 18th February 2020 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy at risk of falling into recession, again After Italy’s economy shrank at the end of last year, it looks set to continue to struggle in 2020. In fact, there is a clear risk that it falls back into recession for the fourth time since 2008. 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Coronavirus to knock off 0.3% from GDP this year A slump in tourist arrivals has been the initial channel through which the virus outbreak in China has harmed Japan’s economy and will most likely knock around 0.4%-pts off GDP growth in Q1. As long... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: 2020 budget should limit hit from virus With the economic cost of the coronavirus mounting, Singapore’s government opted to loosen policy significantly in its 2020 budget today. Growth is still likely to slow sharply, but the strong fiscal... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Investment slump may have bottomed out A slump in investment has been the key factor behind the sharp economic slowdown over the past year. A spectacular rebound is not on the cards but investment should recover gradually over the coming... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Figures published today reveal that Thailand’s economy was in a poor state, even before the coronavirus hit. With tourist arrivals collapsing and the disruption from factory closures in China likely... 17th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) The sharp drop in output after October’s sales tax hike supports our view that Japan’s economy will shrink this year. But with capacity shortages still tight and underlying inflation holding up, we... 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4 2019) Colombian GDP growth ticked down to 3.4% y/y in Q4 from 3.5% y/y in Q3 and we think that growth will slow further this year. The consensus expectations for growth look too optimistic. 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
