Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi past the worst but austerity will hinder recovery The Saudi economy contracted by 1% y/y in Q1 and the figures from Q2 point to an even sharper downturn in Q2 due to the coronavirus crisis. The lifting of the lockdown this month is helping to support... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) The contraction in India’s core infrastructure industries index eased a little in May, suggesting that the slump in industry has bottomed out. But activity is still very weak and, given the damage... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) The fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q1 provides an early sign of the massive economic hit from the country’s severe lockdown measures and supports our view that further interest rate cuts lie in store. 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) The 2.2% q/q drop in GDP in Q1 2020 was the joint largest fall since 1979 and sets the stage for an unprecedented 15-20% fall in Q2, despite evidence that the economy rebounded in May and June. 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs The latest survey data suggest that economic growth accelerated in June thanks to a faster recovery in manufacturing and services, alongside continued strength in construction activity. The recovery... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (May) The sharp drop in the number of furloughed workers in May supports our view that household incomes will rebound in the second half of the year. And while industrial production plunged again in May, it... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) The broad-based rise in June’s Economic Sentiment Indicators provide further signs that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe started to get back on their feet at the end of Q2. That said, the... 29th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Vietnam’s economy slowed sharply in the second quarter, but the numbers were stronger than expected, and put the economy on course to be one of the few countries in the world to grow this year. 29th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (May) The subdued rise in retail sales in May suggests that the lifting of the state of emergency didn’t provide a big boost to consumption and we reiterate our forecast of a 9% q/q plunge in Q2 GDP. And... 29th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Further signs that a strong rebound is underway We are encouraged by the signs that a strong rebound is now underway. But the real test for the economy still lies ahead. Indeed, there are still big question marks over how willing households will be... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Official data signal May rebound, June surveys upbeat This week the first official data for May confirmed the message from the high frequency data and the surveys that economic activity in the euro-zone is recovering fairly strongly. And the latest... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly NZ activity back to normal, but labour market is not As New Zealand has almost entirely eliminated the virus, domestic restrictions have been eased which has allowed activity and consumption to return to normal levels. We have therefore raised our GDP... 26th June 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rural economy holding up as urban prospects worsen The rural economy has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks and we think it will continue to hold up relatively well further ahead. However, urban prospects look much more bleak, in part due to... 26th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A look at Australia’s corporate balance sheets We estimate that the revenues of firms in most sectors were still too low in mid-June to generate profits. If those conditions persisted, nearly one-third of firms would run out of cash by the end of... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Financial conditions ease but headwinds remain After tightening dramatically in March following the outbreak of the coronavirus, our proprietary index shows that financial conditions in India have eased substantially over the past couple of months... 24th June 2020 · 9 mins read
