Europe Economics Update Euro-zone GDP to contract in Q2 and perhaps beyond Following the surge in Covid-19 cases over the past week, we are cutting our forecast for euro-zone economic growth to 0.5% for the year, from 0.7% previously, due to a sharp drop in household... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Making sense of the GDP revisions Revisions to India’s GDP data suggest that the recent slowdown started earlier, and problems in the shadow banking sector have had a more acute impact on the economy, than previously thought. But... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Coronavirus: the long-term impact on supply chains The coronavirus itself may not trigger a wholesale reorganisation of supply chains, but it strengthens the argument for companies to reduce associated risks. One response might be to introduce more... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The drop in the manufacturing PMI in February was expected given its previous surge to an eight-year high in January. But the reading is still consistent with decent growth in manufacturing and... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) PMI readings for Asia are likely to have understated the disruption to industry from factory shutdowns in China, and the recent rise in coronavirus cases outside of China means that worse may be yet... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Feb.) The latest PMI readings were in line with our downbeat expectations but will come as a shock to most analysts, who had anticipated a much smaller hit to business activity from the coronavirus outbreak... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Feb.) Growth in Korean trade in February masks underlying weakness. Trade with China shrank sharply due to disruption from the coronavirus, and there were few signs of strength elsewhere. 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus: five points on the hit to EM activity so far This Activity Monitor outlines five key points on the coronavirus fallout for EMs, including what we can say about the impact so far. At the very least, it looks like the virus will cause aggregate EM... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Economy more vulnerable to pandemics than in the past While medical advances put the world in a better position than in the past to limit the health consequences of a global pandemic, globalisation and a bigger services sector mean that, other things... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) India’s economy slowed again in the fourth quarter of last year, confounding hopes for a small turnaround. But the bigger story in today’s data release is the substantial revision to the GDP data for... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Finland & Denmark GDP (Q4), Swiss KOF (Feb.) The Swedish economy ended last year on the back foot, and a combination of the rising threat from the coronavirus, weak growth in the neighbouring euro-zone, and persistently below-target inflation... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) Turkey’s economy grew by a rapid 1.9% q/q in Q4 of last year and loose policy will keep it motoring along over the coming quarters. But there are increasing signs that strong growth is fuelling a... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Surge in non-mining investment unlikely The capex survey for Q4 showed capital expenditure falling sharply at the end of last year. And while mining firms’ first estimate for capital spending in 2020/21 was very strong, non-mining firms are... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Global virus spread adds to downside risks for China The extended disruption from efforts to contain COVID-19 means that China’s economy is already in the midst of the deepest contraction in at least two decades. And the potential hit to foreign demand... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The coronavirus is likely to knock off course the slight recovery observed in the manufacturing and retail sectors last month. As such, we expect the unemployment rate to rise further over the coming... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Virus-hit global demand to weigh on the UK The failure of the Chinese economy to recover promptly from the measures put in place to contain the coronavirus means that world demand growth will be softer than we had anticipated this year, but... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
