China Data Response Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Exports dropped the most since 2008 at the start of this year. Imports held up better but at the expense of a jump in inventories. Inbound shipments will soon play catch-up with the slump in domestic... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea could be next to disrupt global supply chains Korea’s position as a key supplier of high-tech intermediate goods means it plays an important role in regional supply chains. Extended factory closures due to the spread of the coronavirus would... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Revised) A disastrous Q4 following the sales tax hike was shown to have been even worse in the second estimate of GDP. That supports our bearish view that output will fall by 1% this year. It also further... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Grim outlook means RBA will launch QE before long Recent data show that the Australian economy was sputtering even before the coronavirus started to spread within the country in earnest. We now think the rising number of cases in Australia will cause... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession appears baked in, fresh stimulus on the way Consumer spending has rebounded from the slump caused by October’s sales tax hike and we’ve pencilled in a rise in the first quarter. But the coronavirus is likely to result in a renewed slowdown over... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Virus a growing threat to domestic activity The jump in coronavirus cases in India this week underlines the threat of a wide-scale outbreak in the country. We are now working on the assumption that this takes place and have revised down our... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Jan.) Retail sales fell for the second consecutive month in January. And given that this happened before the coronavirus started to spread in Australia in earnest, the outlook for consumption remains weak. 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian GDP likely to contract in Q1 and Q2 The response by policymakers, households and firms to the spread of the coronavirus looks set to take a heavy toll on Italy’s economy. We suspect that GDP will contract in both Q1 and Q2, and that... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Australian fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming We expect the Treasury to announce only a small fiscal package of around $2bn in response to the coronavirus outbreak. With economic activity slowing sharply and revenues undershooting expectations... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2019) Brazil’s relatively strong 0.5% q/q GDP growth rate recorded in Q4 masked a sharp loss of momentum late in the quarter. Taken together with growing headwinds from the effects of the coronavirus more... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Feb.) The return of deflation to Switzerland in February will only strengthen the policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising much further. Following yesterday’s emergency rate cut by the Fed... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Coronavirus to weigh on economic recovery The rapid global spread of the coronavirus has prompted us to lower our 2020 GDP growth forecast for India to 5.3%, from 5.7% previously. And there is now a high chance that the RBI follows the lead... 4th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - GDP (Q4) GDP growth remained subdued at the end of last year, and given the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak we expect the economy to deteriorate further in 2020. 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Coronavirus will force Bank of Japan to cut rates Two developments over the past couple of days have caused us to change our thinking on the outlook for monetary policy in Japan. We now assume that the coronavirus will spread widely across most of... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy in the doldrums The sharp fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q4 not only marked a technical recession, but also set up a very weak starting point for 2020. And downside risks are growing with the spread of the coronavirus... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss GDP likely to contract in Q2 The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP growth in Q4 provides a higher base for annual growth rates at the start of this year than we had previously assumed. Nonetheless, following the surge... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
