Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to favour a 50bp cut The upside surprise to GDP growth in July does not change the big picture that quarterly growth is likely to be much weaker than the Bank of Canada anticipated, while a host of other data releases... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The implications of more public investment A big increase in public investment in the Budget on 30th October would push up demand before any rise in supply is felt. That could mean over the next year or two inflation is a bit higher than... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly October ECB cut not a done deal A 25bp interest rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting in mid-October is now more-or-less fully priced into the market. But while the odds of a cut have risen, it is far from a done deal. Much will... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul.) Although the rise in GDP in July was stronger than expected, the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in August suggests that the momentum was short lived and puts third-quarter growth on track to... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling... 27th September 2024 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Aug) As we calculated based on the earlier price data releases, the core PCE deflator increased by a muted 0.13% m/m in August, with the headline deflator up by 0.09% m/m. Admittedly, although the monthly... 27th September 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Make in India: 10 years on Though there have been pockets of success, PM Modi's flagship "Make in India" policy initiative - launched 10 years ago this week - has done little to improve the global competitiveness of India's... 27th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional economic growth strengthened at the end of Q3. But the rise in selling price expectations... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update New fiscal package being lined up China’s finance ministry appears to be lining up a fiscal support package to deliver on the Politburo’s pledge of additional support for the economy. If a report by Reuters is correct, the package... 26th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economic Outlook A soft patch The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn... 26th September 2024 · 44 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q2 3rd Est. & Annual Revision) & Durable Goods (Aug) At first glance the annual revision to the national accounts doesn’t appear to have had much of an impact – with second-quarter GDP growth left unchanged at 3.0% and core PCE inflation unchanged at 2... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus... 26th September 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Sep. 24) The readout of the Politburo’s quarterly meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It acknowledges that new problems have emerged in the Chinese economy recently and calls... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (September 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6.0-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which... 25th September 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt more aggressive loosening With the inflation battle all but won, weak GDP growth will force the Bank of Canada into more aggressive action, with a couple of 50bp interest rate cuts to end this year. We expect the Bank to adopt... 25th September 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update Your questions answered We held an online Drop-In session this week to discuss the outlook for the euro-zone. (See a recording here.) This Update addresses some of the questions that we received, including some that we didn... 25th September 2024 · 6 mins read
