Asia Economics Update Vietnam: what impact will easing the shutdown have? Vietnam has started to lift some of the shutdown measures that were introduced to slow the spread of the coronavirus, but this won’t prevent the export-dependent economy from slowing sharply this year... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 5.1% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in March was the largest on record and suggests that household consumption declined by at least 4% q/q in Q1. However, as the corona virus lockdown was only... 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s push to reshore production won’t succeed The government is encouraging manufacturers to return production of components from their overseas subsidiaries to Japan. Given the large scale of production that is now located abroad, a major... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Apr.) The slump in the composite PMI to a record-low in April points to GDP falling by at least 7% in Q2, but we think the survey is understating the severity of the downturn. 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1, provisional) Economic activity in Korea fell by the most since 2008 last quarter and unfortunately there is much worse to come. With the external environment weighing heavily on export demand, a much deeper... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan headed for recession despite containment success Taiwan’s success at containing the coronavirus outbreak at home will not prevent the economy from falling into a huge recession this year. We think the economy will shrink by 5% this year, which would... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) The collapse in the Polish activity data for March came on the back of two strong months and suggests that the economy probably avoided a contraction in Q1 and grew at around 2.0% y/y. But the slump... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on South Africa’s fiscal package The 10% of GDP emergency fiscal response announced by South Africa’s president last night will help to alleviate some of the strains in the economy caused by the lockdown. But with this coming one... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What if shutdowns don’t work in South Asia? The impracticality of social distancing for many will make it hard for countries in South Asia to contain the coronavirus. Failure to contain the disease would have dreadful humanitarian consequences... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
China Economics Update Hospitality, retail & construction were worst hit in Q1 The detailed breakdown of China’s Q1 GDP data that was published over the weekend shouldn’t be taken completely at face value. But it still provides a useful framework for gauging the relative... 20th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack New cases not exploding but economic hit still huge A second wave of virus cases driven by rising infections in Tokyo and Osaka has triggered a major shift in economic behaviour. And while new cases in the two lynchpins of the Japanese economy have... 17th April 2020 · 11 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) GDP contracted in Q1 for the first time since China began publishing quarterly data in 1992, though we suspect that the slump in output was even deeper than officials claim. The monthly data suggest... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment rate will rise sharply The official labour market statistics do not yet show a significant deterioration. But given the restrictions on activity and plunging confidence, we think the unemployment rate may jump to 12% before... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly April is the cruelest month Activity data for March released this week confirm a precipitous drop in economic output. And with the nationwide lockdown now being extended, far worse is likely to follow in April. 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read