Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price fall and Gulf fiscal strains, tourism reopening The fall in the price of oil this week has put further pressure on fiscal positions in the Gulf, and most governments are likely to run large budget deficits over the rest of this year. For now... 10th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Stronger recovery to keep BCC on the side-lines Chile’s economy is recovering more quickly than we had previously expected and, as a result, we are revising up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.5% (previously -7.0%). The stronger rebound has eased... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Digging into Russia’s consumer recovery The rebound in Russian consumer spending since April has been supported by a more active fiscal policy stance than we had expected. Although the pace of growth will soften, spending is likely to... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus Introducing our new China Activity Proxy (CAP) For over a decade, we have tracked the performance of China’s economy independently from the official GDP figures using our China Activity Proxy (CAP). We are now introducing a revamped version of... 10th September 2020 · 30 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) While machinery orders rose in July we still expect non-residential investment to weaken further in Q3. And with business sentiment set to remain weak for the forseeable future, any rebound in... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Mexico’s 2021 budget The frugal 2021 budget proposed by Mexico’s government underlines policymakers’ fixation about public debt risks and concerns about their credit rating. Meeting policymakers’ new and ambitious targets... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Lower spending by National would be a drag Jacinda Ardern’s incumbent Labour party looks set to win a solid victory at New Zealand’s upcoming election. That might keep business confidence subdued, but it probably wouldn’t be as much of a drag... 9th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) The huge fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q2 confirms our pessimistic outlook for the economy and, with fiscal austerity on the horizon, the recovery will be weak. Policymakers at the central bank will... 8th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP showed that the plunge in economic activity in the second quarter was broad-based, with investment and exports faring particularly poorly. The rapid rebound in Q3... 8th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Jul.) Data released this morning show that the rebound in economic activity in Norway lost a bit of steam in July, which is in keeping with signs elsewhere in Europe. Nonetheless, given that the plunge in... 8th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) & GDP (Q2 Revised) Wage growth improved in July and household incomes are likely to rebound further as more workers who lost their jobs during the state of emergency find employment again. Meanwhile, the second estimate... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: Slow recovery despite virus success Despite Thailand’s success in containing the coronavirus, the country is likely to record one of the biggest falls in GDP in the region this year. A collapse in tourism and a slump in automotive... 7th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery stutters Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has faltered in recent months and the backdrop of fiscal austerity, the partial suspension of pilgrimages and oil production cuts mean that it is likely to remain slow... 7th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (July) German industry eked out a meagre increase in production in July, leaving output still well below its pre-crisis level. Production is likely to have increased again in August, but we now seem to be... 7th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly US aid to Ethiopia on ice, debt relief state of play The US’s move to suspend some aid to Ethiopia amid tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam risks further actions that would limit Ethiopia’s fiscal space. Meanwhile, momentum to expand a... 4th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A PMI puzzle, Brazil’s GDP oddities & budget A string of eye-catching economic data releases this week has fuelled yet more optimism about the strength of Brazil’s recovery. But digging into the details suggests that there may be less to some of... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
