US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weaker 0.2% gain in headline durable goods orders in December was mainly due to ongoing problems among aircraft manufacturers and a drop off in defence orders. The bigger story is the continued... 27th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Vaccinations lag the US Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the... 26th January 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ to hike rates next year We now expect the RBNZ to tighten monetary policy in the years ahead as GDP growth, the labour market and inflation will be much stronger than the Bank has anticipated. We expect asset purchases to be... 26th January 2021 · 18 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4, provisional) Korea’s recovery lost a little steam last quarter as a third wave of infections weighed on private consumption, but with cases now on a downward trend, the recovery should regain momentum over the... 26th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) The fall in the headline Ifo Business Climate Indicator for January is consistent with our view that, having proved resilient in Q4, German’s economy will contract in Q1. Tougher Covid-19 restrictions... 25th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Keystone XL cancellation highlights climate challenges The executive order signed by US President Joe Biden this week, to revoke the permit allowing the Keystone XL pipeline to cross the US border, means the project is as good as dead. This does not alter... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The tightening of the coronavirus restrictions in November helped boost retail sales, as consumers substituted spending on goods for spending on services. That means the retail sales data paint too... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s flash composite PMI is consistent with our view that the third lockdown, like the second, was much less damaging for the economy than the first lockdown in March/April 2020. But it suggests... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (January) The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in January confirms that the tighter measures imposed are taking their toll on the economy and that services are bearing the brunt. With restrictions unlikely... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly FX reserve accumulation will limit rupee gains The RBI has accumulated foreign exchange reserves at a rapid pace over recent months, and comments this week from Governor Shaktikanta Das indicate that the central bank intends to build up its... 22nd January 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The tiny rise in retail sales in December shows that it wasn’t a very merry Christmas for retailers. And January’s lockdown means it won’t have been a happy start to the new year either. But at least... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Voluntary measures may not bear enough fruit The light-touch state of emergency appears to have had some success in stemming the surge in cases in the Greater Tokyo area. But with many hospitals reportedly close to full capacity, the government... 22nd January 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jan. 2021) The small decline in January’s composite PMI is consistent with our view that the second state of emergency won’t throw the recovery off course. 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The sharp rise in underlying inflation in Q4 is consistent with our view that the RBNZ will tighten policy in the years ahead. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
India Chart Pack The benefits and costs of tighter NBFC regulation The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to tighten regulation of non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) over the coming weeks. Alongside stricter audits of many smaller lenders, the RBI is likely to... 21st January 2021 · 9 mins read
