India Economics Update Stonking current account surplus will prove fleeting If ever there were a sign of how extraordinary economic developments have been this year, India recorded a stonking current account surplus in Q2. This is unlikely to last long, as oil prices will... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recoveries entering a slower phase, China an exception The latest activity and mobility data indicate that the EM recovery has lost some steam in recent months and we expect the pace of recovery to remain slow-going in the coming quarters. The main... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2) Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by 7.0% y/y in Q2 on the back of the virus containment measures and oil production cuts. And even though containment measures have started to be lifted, the... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) The latest PMIs show that economic activity continued to accelerate in September on the back of a broad-based improvement in both services and manufacturing. 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) Retail sales rebounded back to pre-virus levels in August as the second wave began to dissipate, and we expect consumer spending to recover further over the coming months. Meanwhile, industrial... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Encouraging signs in Korea Korea looks to have contained its “second wave” of the virus with minimum cost to the economy. There were just 38 newly confirmed cases in Korea today, which was the lowest since early August and down... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth concerns mounting in Nigeria Nigeria is facing an uphill battle to breathe life into its economic recovery. Following a sharp 6.1% y/y fall in GDP in Q2, more recent figures suggest that activity remains muted. Admittedly, Google... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The further rise in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September suggests that the recovery continued this month, albeit at a slower pace. However, we suspect that the recent rise in virus... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q3) Vietnam’s economy rebounded in the third quarter and should continue to perform strongly over the coming year. A surge in exports to the US, aggressive rate cuts by the central bank and the government... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Policymakers refocus on property developer debt The speed at which officials in China have pivoted from crisis response to another round of restrictions on property developers has caught many by surprise. Developers might have hoped that they would... 28th September 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: weak recovery, new currency forecasts Inadequate fiscal support is holding back growth in the Philippines and, unless this improves, the recovery will continue to underwhelm. Meanwhile, despite the recent sell-off in EM currency markets... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE likely to continue with gradual monetary easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50bps at Thursday’s MPC meeting after a six month pause to the loosening cycle. Policymakers are likely to remain cautious about future easing... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan and Vietnam: outperformance continues Continued trade tensions between the US and China are providing a significant boost to economic prospects in Taiwan and Vietnam. Having also successfully contained the virus without significant... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will cut rates and step up QE in October Recent data from Victoria show that the second lockdown has not curbed activity as much as we had anticipated. We are therefore revising up our Q3 GDP forecast. Even so, the economic outlook remains... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Australia - Lessons from second virus waves The experience from second virus waves in Australia, New Zealand and Japan is that consumer spending falls even if governments don’t impose major restrictions. However, there are three key reasons why... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
