Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions The central government’s decision to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong risks undermining the city’s economic success and the US response may add to those headwinds. More broadly, the... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bumps in Korea’s recovery, how to interpret the PMIs A couple of new outbreaks of coronavirus in Korea’s capital city, Seoul, has led to renewed fears of a second wave of infections. The recent spike appears to have put the recovery on hold and has led... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) Turkey’s economy managed to grow in Q1 as a strong January and February more than offset a dire March. But the latest activity figures are ominous and point to a collapse in activity in Q2. 29th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly April probably the nadir, but recovery slow going The slump in activity in April was worse than most had anticipated. While domestic demand will rebound now that the state of emergency has come to an end, we think it will take until 2022 for GDP to... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Looser restrictions risk faster virus spread PM Modi is likely to extend the lockdown when he addresses the nation on Sunday as there is little indication of the virus being contained. However, restrictions are set to be eased significantly... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The huge fall in industrial production and retail sales in April support our below-consensus forecast that the economy will contract by 12% q/q this quarter. The unemployment rate is also set to... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Some thoughts on the lasting damage from the crisis The euro-zone is not suffering from excessive leverage among banks and households, or slow and counter-productive responses from policymakers, which held back its recovery from the last two crises... 28th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) May’s Economic Sentiment indicators suggest that the easing of lockdowns only provided a limited boost to the Central and Eastern Europe economies. The surveys are still consistent with a fall in GDP... 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q1) We estimate that private investment was broadly flat in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure point to a sharp downturn in investment in the coming months. 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns, infection rates and the EM recovery Large parts of Emerging Asia have controlled the virus exceptionally well, which should allow activity to recover quicker than in most other EMs. In contrast, many countries in Latin America are still... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: boost from pharma sector will not last A surge in pharmaceutical production has provided a significant boost to Singapore’s economy over the past couple of months, but this is likely to prove temporary and will not prevent a massive... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1) A very strong performance from the biomedical manufacturing sector meant that Singapore’s economy contracted much less in Q1 than previously thought. But with a stringent lockdown in place at home and... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: deeper downturn, but fast recovery Q1 GDP data from Peru suggest that its lockdown is having a bigger impact on activity than measures elsewhere in Latin America. And with new infections in Peru surging in recent weeks, we are revising... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ramps up virus response, more easing in store The RBI has further stepped up its response to the collapse in economic activity from the coronavirus and containment measures in another emergency announcement today. The central bank has also left... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong imports, Kansai gets back up and running The resilience of imports in both March and April has prompted us to significantly revise up our forecast for Q2 goods and services imports. However, the nature of the current downturn means that... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read