China Economics Weekly Households spending more, RMB gains to continue Consumer spending continued to strengthen during the Golden Week holiday, helping to dispel some concerns about the lopsided nature of China’s recovery and providing a further tailwind today to the... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian industrial data not as good as they look August’s strong increase in industrial production in Italy is not as good as it first appears. The timelier surveys point to annual declines in output, and rising virus numbers present a growing... 9th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam in US cross hairs Vietnam has so far emerged as the biggest winner of the US-China trade war, as tariffs on goods from China have led US importers to switch suppliers. Vietnam’s exports to the US have doubled since the... 9th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus now, monetary stimulus in November This week’s Australian Budget injected another huge dose of fiscal stimulus. Some of the measures may not be quite as effective as those in earlier rounds of stimulus but taken together Australia’s... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Aug.) The disappointing 2.1% m/m rise in GDP (consensus forecast 4.6%) adds to the evidence that the initial rebound in economic activity is running out of steam. And with new restrictions being imposed to... 9th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle is not over yet It came as no surprise that the new MPC voted unanimously to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today. But the relatively dovish tone of the statement, along with the dire growth outlook... 9th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Overtaken on fiscal support Japan hasn’t announced any new fiscal support measures since May. As a result, the fiscal response – while colossal in normal circumstances – is starting to look small in comparison to elsewhere... 9th October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over the worst? This week has brought some much-needed good news for India’s beleaguered economy. Activity data for September released over the past few days have been encouraging, while there has been a further drop... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation and the IMF, GDP data, Tunisian debt Egyptian inflation data for September, due next week, are likely to be low enough to result in the IMF encouraging the central bank to cut interest rate cuts. Elsewhere, the raft of recently-released... 8th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nordics offer salutary tales for harder-hit economies 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Nordics offer salutary tales for harder-hit economies The further slowdowns in monthly GDP growth in Norway and Sweden in August support our view that it will take a long time for output to recover to pre-crisis trend levels anywhere in Europe. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to resume easing cycles soon With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way... 8th October 2020 · 36 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recovery could surprise to the upside Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to... 8th October 2020 · 21 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) The small fall in German industrial production in August left it a long way below its pre-crisis level, and lagging the industrial rebounds elsewhere in the euro-zone. We think the sector will resume... 7th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Sep.) The rise in the September PMIs is a welcome sign that the economic recovery still has legs. But with new virus cases in India still high, the road to normality will almost certainly remain long and... 6th October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Consumers misery is largely justified Consumers appear to be much more miserable than the economic fundamentals would imply. But the prospect of a second wave of unemployment and the risk of future lockdowns are not captured well by the... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
