India Economics Update Oxford vaccine is a shot in the arm for the economy The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India would significantly improve the near-term economic outlook, and we have revised up our GDP forecasts for 2021 and 2022. But the economy will... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct.) Retail sales rose in October, but as both values and volumes are now above pre-virus levels they’re unlikely to rise much further and could edge down amidst the third wave. Meanwhile, industrial... 30th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q4 contraction before fairly quick rebound in 2021 Following the flurry of positive news on vaccines, we have revised up our economic forecasts for 2021 and 2022. Among the major economies, we think that Germany will be the standout performer. Spain... 27th November 2020 · 8 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) The y/y slump in Indian GDP eased substantially in Q3 (Q2 of FY20/21), but output was still 9% below its pre-virus level last quarter. Looking ahead, encouraging news on vaccines has brightened the... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Nov.) The fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone in November was hardly a surprise given the tightening of restrictions. But the ESI is higher than it was in the spring... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccines stoke Tokyo’s Olympic flame With many local authorities rolling out fresh restrictions this week, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the third wave will weigh on activity over the near term. But while we’ve revised down our... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Vaccines inject optimism into our forecasts COVID-19 vaccines are a gamechanger for our economic forecasts and mean that we now think that by the middle of the decade the economy won’t be much smaller than if the COVID-19 crisis had never... 27th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Factoring in a vaccine to our forecasts Following the run of positive news on the vaccine front, we now expect Switzerland and the Nordic economies to regain pre-virus levels in late 2021. Nonetheless, policymakers will be in no rush to... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging portfolio inflows, Q3 GDP, RBI meeting Foreign portfolio inflows into Indian markets, particularly into equities, have surged in November and we think they will remain robust over the coming months. Looking ahead, we agree with market and... 27th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Spending to underperform, but only in the near term Retail sales are likely to fall further behind those in the US amid the latest coronavirus-related restrictions, particularly because the Canadian data do a worse job at capturing online sales... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Higher GDP forecasts due to vaccine We now assume that vaccines will be rolled out in the euro-zone next year and that most of the restrictions on economic activity are lifted during Q2. As a result, demand rebounds fairly rapidly and... 26th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Vaccine to reduce need for further monetary stimulus Australia and New Zealand will benefit less than other advanced economies from a vaccine due to their success in containing the virus. Even so, we’ve lifted our 2021 GDP growth forecasts a bit and no... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Vaccines will hasten return to pre-virus economic path We now assume that one or more COVID-19 vaccines will be widely available in Japan next year, which suggests that the drag on activity from voluntary social distancing will come to an end. That should... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q3) We estimate that private investment fell by a modest 1.2% q/q in Q3, and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest we may be near the trough in investment. 26th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Yellen to be first female Treasury Secretary This week the markets were buoyed by the news that President-elect Joe Biden intends to nominate Janet Yellen to be Treasury secretary but, while she is eminently qualified, her lack of political deal... 25th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Employment to decline in December The decline in restaurant visits in the past month suggests that over 100,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services sector were at risk even before most of the Greater Toronto Area moved into... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
