UK Economics Weekly Brexit: will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the EU budget dispute We think the dispute with Hungary and Poland over the EU’s multiannual budget will be resolved one way or another and the EU will start to disburse the Recovery Fund during the first half of next year... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) The rise in the headline construction PMI in November showed that the industry continued to recover even as overall economic activity probably contracted again. But builders’ optimism that this will... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The RBI kept the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today and made an explicit commitment to keep policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. Markets are too hawkish in expecting modest rate... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Infections rising again, “Go To” still alive and kicking Daily cases have started creeping higher again at the national level driven by a renewed rise in infections in Tokyo and Osaka. We suspect that both cities will soon ask citizens to stay at home and... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth in 2021 likely to be stronger than most expect The rebound in GDP in Q3 was led by a big rebound in consumption. Consumption growth should slow in Q4, but with many states relaxing restrictions, we’re still forecasting a solid rise. What’s more... 4th December 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2021 China’s rebound from the COVID-19 shock has been swifter and stronger than most anticipated. We think its economy will continue to surprise to the upside for a while, paving the way for PBOC rate... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Oct.) The rebound in retail sales in October is likely to be overshadowed by an even larger increase in November as Victoria reopens. 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Looser restrictions allow recovery to continue The recovery in GDP was a touch faster than expected in Q3, and activity data released this week point to a continued rebound in Q4. How much output continues to be made up over the coming months will... 4th December 2020 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to keep supporting economy during recovery Policymakers at the ECB have already flagged that they will extend their support for the economy at their monetary policy meeting next Thursday, primarily by “recalibrating” the Pandemic Emergency... 3rd December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Vaccines will help the labour market heal COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier... 3rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Vaccines will help the labour market heal COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier... 3rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s increase in euro-zone retail sales took them well above their level in February, but they are almost certain to have dropped back in November. And the PMIs suggest that activity in the wider... 3rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate jumped to a stronger-than-expected 14.0% y/y in November and, while the lira has rallied strongly over the past month and the economy looks set to suffer a fresh... 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Nov.) India’s PMI readings edged down in November but still point to a continued economic recovery last month. This is likely to remain the case over the coming months as COVID-19 restrictions gradually get... 3rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
