UK Data Response Monthly GDP (Oct.) The economy continued to grow in October, but at a snail’s pace. And with the COVID-19 restrictions likely to remain in place for some time, the economy is in for a difficult few months yet. But scope... 10th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP (Oct.) The economy continued to grow in October, but at a snail’s pace. And with the COVID-19 restrictions likely to remain in place for some time, the economy is in for a difficult few months yet. But scope... 10th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the vaccine will affect Greece’s economy The recent tightening in coronavirus restrictions means that Greece’s recovery will shift into reverse in Q4 and the start of 2021 is also likely to be weak. However, the rollout of a vaccine by mid... 9th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Oct.) & Sweden Activity Ind. (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected increase in mainland Norwegian GDP means that the economy will avoid contracting in Q4 and confirms that it will experience a comparatively modest drop in output in 2020... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Oct. 2020) The surge in machinery orders in October supports our view that non-residential investment began to recover this quarter. We expect them to rebound further over the coming months. 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q3) The surge in mortgage lending to its highest level since before the financial crisis has come despite banks curbing riskier loans. If we are right to think that house prices will dip, that should... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The third estimate of euro-zone Q3 GDP confirmed that the economy staged a rapid rebound from the first lockdowns. This provides grounds for optimism about growth prospects for next year. 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) The drop in the Economy Watchers Survey in November still leaves it consistent with solid growth in consumer spending. As such, the survey is consistent with our view that the third wave will slow... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Wages, HH Spending (Oct.) & GDP (Rev. Q3 2020) The sizeable upward revision to Q3 GDP and the sharp rise in “core” household spending in October support our view that Japan’s economy will recover from the pandemic faster than the consensus expects... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Business investment already turning a corner The surge in capital goods shipments in October and solid profit data for Q3 suggest that capital spending is ending the year on a strong note. We’re revising up our forecast for business investment... 7th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) Germany’s manufacturing output rose again in October and the signs are that it held up well after the lockdown-lite came into force in November. It now looks as if Germany will be the only major euro... 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccines to prompt rapid growth in 2021 and 2022 Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable... 4th December 2020 · 12 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal negotiations go down to the wire (again) Markets received a boost this week from the more positive news on the possibility of a (smaller) fiscal relief package, but it still seems unlikely that a deal will be made that satisfies all sides... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Suspect Swedish PMI; from Minkgate to Skigate While the pick-up in the services PMI in Sweden in November was a bit of a surprise, the prospect of restrictions having to be tightened even further means that the sector is far from out of the woods... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ailing economy to get policy booster A mixed bag of data releases this week leaves us happy with our forecasts for a 3% contraction in GDP this quarter and a strong recovery next year as vaccines are rolled out. Next week, the ECB will... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
