Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) Manufacturing sales only edged up in October and the disruption from the coronavirus at home and abroad is likely to hold back growth in the next few months, but we are more positive about prospects... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Nov.) China’s economy continued to accelerate across all fronts in November. We expect output to remain above-trend in the coming quarters, even as tailwinds from stimulus and exports start to ease. 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s increase in euro-zone industrial output marked a decent start to the quarter and we think that production will rise in Q4 as a whole. Industry has been largely unaffected by the more... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for October suggest that the economy carried a lot of momentum into the start of Q4 but the recent tightening of virus containment measures... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q4 2020) The sharp rebound in the Q4 Tankan supports our view that the economy will rebound relatively swiftly from the dislocation caused by the pandemic. And while firms’ capital spending plans point to... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie flies despite Bank’s pledge to keep yields low The Canadian dollar jumped to a two-year high this week and, despite the pledge from the Bank of Canada that it will keep rates low across the yield curve, we think there is still scope for further... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB not out of the woods yet As well as being a game-changer for economic prospects next year, the positive news on the vaccine front has also helped to ease the upward pressure on the Swiss franc against the euro. The franc... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risk of a "cooperative" no deal Brexit rises The next Brexit decision “deadline” on Sunday 13 th December, may or may not be the turning point that results in the UK and EU hurtling either towards a deal or a no deal. But with the Brexit... 11th December 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Will households spend the extra money they have saved? One of the biggest upside risks to our forecasts is that households spend the extra savings that they have accumulated during the past few months. If they do, North America and the UK look likely to... 11th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus restrictions continue, ECB provides more support The extension of virus restrictions in France and calls for tougher measures in Germany this week strengthen our view that euro-zone economic activity will still be substantially curtailed in early... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The robust 2.0% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in October suggests that the economy started Q4 on a solid footing. But more timely indicators imply that the recovery struggled over the rest... 11th December 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Year-end leadership forum to flag hawkish policy shift China’s leadership will gather in the coming days for the annual Central Economic Work Conference. With the economy now back on track, we think discussions will focus on the recent surge in debt... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banks will get left behind in the recovery An emergency approval of a COVID-19 vaccine in India would reaffirm our view that the economic outlook has brightened. But while some have also turned more optimistic on banking sector prospects, we... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery slowing, but prospects brightening for 2021 The latest data suggest that the recovery in output has continued apace in recent months. Admittedly, the third virus wave will probably act as a brake on the recovery for now. But with vaccines set... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
