Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Oct. 24) The sharp fall in the composite PMI to a 2-year low supports our view that the strong rebound in activity that started in Q2 will be more muted across the second half of the year. Today’s flash... 24th October 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The much weaker-than-expected Polish retail sales data for September suggest that the economy slowed more than we had been expecting in Q3. Even so, we think that this weakness was probably caused by... 22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Brazil’s economy overheating? Concerns that Brazil’s economy is overheating are justified – to an extent. But the economy looks very different now compared with the last bout of overheating in the early 2010s. As a result, while... 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity data hold up despite disruptions The data this week confirmed that retail sales rose strongly in September and industrial production suffered only modestly from hurricane and strike disruption, with our third-quarter GDP growth... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak euro-zone activity data, ECB responds As widely expected, the ECB cut its policy rates by 25bp yesterday, but its policy statement was a bit more dovish than anticipated and a 50bp cut in the future is a growing possibility. Meanwhile... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy cooling The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy has entered a softer patch. Coupled with the RBI's change in policy stance, this suggests that monetary policy easing is... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2024) After slowing in Q2, the economy regained some momentum last quarter. A boost from fiscal stimulus should help narrowly meet the annual growth target this year and support activity in the coming... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Recessions fears continue to go unfounded, with the labour market still in good health after the strong September employment report. Prospects for October look weaker due to recent temporary... 17th October 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Sep. 2024) The fall in manufacturing output in September was entirely due to the disruption caused by the Boeing machinists’ strike and Hurricane Helene. Indeed, with these impacts excluded, industrial... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update China stimulus unlikely to have big spillovers to DMs We may learn more about the size and structure of China’s fiscal package over the next couple of weeks, but based on what we know the impact on advanced economies will probably be small. The bigger... 16th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s lopsided economic recovery South Africa’s economy continued to pick-up in the middle of Q3 but the recovery is taking place at different speeds across sectors; lower inflation is supporting consumer-facing sectors but industry... 16th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2024) The 0.8% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August looks consistent with the flash estimate that GDP was unchanged that month, leaving the economy on track for a weaker third quarter... 16th October 2024 · 2 mins read
