UK Economics Update Brexit deal removes one potential brake on the recovery Today’s news that a UK-EU Brexit deal will soon be announced may not boost the financial markets by much more than it already has. But a decent economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in the second... 24th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit deal removes one potential brake on the recovery Today’s news that a UK-EU Brexit deal will soon be announced may not boost the financial markets by much more than it already has. But a decent economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in the second... 24th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The economy continued to recover at a decent pace in October and November despite the various restrictions imposed on high-risk services, but the broader lockdowns coming into effect in Ontario and... 23rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts (Q3) While a double-dip recession is a clear possibility if the Tier 4 COVID-19 restrictions are extended into 2021, Q3’s high saving rate provides optimism that as long as vaccines are effective and... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Stimulus another reason for optimism about 2021 The additional $900bn stimulus that looks likely to be passed by Congress within the next day or two means that we are raising our GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 5.5%, from 5.0%. 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Severe COVID-19 restrictions raise chance of double-dip The new Tier 4 COVID-19 restrictions, which closely resemble November’s lockdown, raise the chances that the economy stagnates, if not contracts, in the first three months of 2021. If the economy is... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Euro-zone consumer confidence rose in December despite the tightening of virus containment measures in many countries. But it remained very low, and with the virus spreading quickly and a new threat... 21st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Dec.) Korean exports remain remarkably strong, despite renewed waves of the virus at home and abroad, and we expect this to continue over the coming months. 21st December 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech crackdown, demand-side reform The recent Politburo meeting underscored that reining in the tech sector's has become a key priority for China’s leadership. The economic consequences of this crackdown are far from clear-cut. But... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Suga will struggle to keep up light-touch approach Survey data suggest that surging coronavirus infections have done little to knock the economic recovery off course thus far. Such resilience amidst an increasingly severe public health situation has... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade tensions start to undermine coal exports Australia’s coal shipments to China have fallen sharply in recent months as trade tensions have continued to escalate. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports to be spared, we... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 2020) While headline inflation fell sharply again in November due to weaker fresh food and energy inflation, we think it will recover early next year. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but challenges still lie ahead Daily new COVID-19 infections have levelled off or fallen in most parts of Central Europe and there are signs that activity has started to rebound. But the fresh rise in new cases this month in... 17th December 2020 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
