UK Economics Weekly When will vaccines unlock the economy? The length of the third lockdown in England will largely be determined by how long it takes to vaccinate the most vulnerable people. As a result, the pace of vaccinations over the next few weeks will... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout, Poland’s policy shift, US data breach COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the region have started slowly over the past few weeks and prolonged virus restrictions mean that economies will remain weak for a few more months at least... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly In store for a bumpy start to 2021 The gloomy backdrop of rising virus cases casts a dark shadow over Q1. However, we expect the rollout of vaccines will pave the way to a rebound in economic activity in May/June, and that Nordic... 8th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Fast-spreading virus, slow vaccinations The economy withstood the second lockdowns comparatively well in November and December. But rising virus numbers and the painfully slow start to the vaccination rollout mean that the region is... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Virus disruptions linger but vaccines deliver This week’s lockdown of Shijiazhuang, a city of 11 million, is a reminder that sporadic flare-ups of COVID-19 are still imposing an economic cost on China. Domestic passenger travel in particular... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) German manufacturers withstood the restrictions imposed in November much better than many feared, meaning the economy almost certainly expanded in Q4 last year. However, we suspect that it will... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes and concerns The approval of COVID-19 vaccines in India this week were quicker than most had expected, but concerns over the approval process and pricing disagreements underscore some of the challenges that remain... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Earlier vaccine rollout as fresh lockdowns proliferate Prime Minister Scott Morrison revealed this week that vaccinations are now likely to start in February rather than in March. And based on the government’s ambitious timeline we think the elderly and... 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Second lockdown will be less damaging than the first The state of emergency declared in the Greater Tokyo area this week only entails mild restrictions on economic activity and we think it will soon be extended nationwide and made more draconian in... 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Second wave delays the recovery The extension of lockdowns has dashed hopes of an early rebound in economic activity. Instead, the economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of this year. After falling quite steeply at the... 7th January 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment activity set for a muted recovery in 2021 Despite a brighter economic outlook later in 2021, many of the factors that weighed on investment activity last year are set to persist. In turn, following a likely 20% fall in European (excluding UK)... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.), HICP & ESI (Dec.) Activity data published this morning suggest that the euro-zone economy performed better in Q4 than we had anticipated. But the recent extensions of lockdowns make it more likely that the economy... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The seventh consecutive construction PMI reading of over 50 in December mainly reflected a continued strong recovery in housing activity. The rebound in construction of commercial property has already... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The seventh consecutive construction PMI reading of over 50 in December mainly reflected a continued strong recovery in housing activity. The rebound in construction of commercial property has already... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) A surge in imports meant that the trade balance narrowed in November so we now think that trade was a modest drag on growth in Q4. 2.6 6.4 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
