UK Economic Outlook A faster and fuller recovery within sight Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It... 19th January 2021 · 26 mins read
China Economics Update All of the service sector now back to growth The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data published today shows that the services sector, which had been lagging construction and industry, has returned to its pre-virus growth path, with all... 19th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) On the official figures, China’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years last quarter. The monthly data suggest that growth dropped back slightly heading into 2021 but it remains strong. We... 18th January 2021 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) In contrast to the renewed slump in consumption, the December industrial production figures show manufacturing output continuing to rise strongly and, with inventories still lean, we expect that... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The further slump in retail sales in December confirms that the continued surge in coronavirus infections is now weighing heavily on the economy and illustrates that, despite the building optimism... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly COVID-19 economic hole far smaller November’s GDP figures which suggested that the economy ended 2020 in a far better position than we had thought and the promising start to the vaccine roll out have given us some cause for optimism... 15th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus data cloud Q1 outlook, Italian politics in turmoil While the economic data published this week were fairly encouraging about the euro-zone’s performance at the end of last year, the deterioration in the virus situation and associated tougher measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Less travel, more work this Lunar New Year With new virus cases at their highest in 10 months, local governments and firms are discouraging workers from travelling during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday. While this will deal a blow to... 15th January 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP (Nov.) The economy has built up a fair bit of immunity to lockdowns, as November’s second COVID-19 lockdown was much less painful for the economy than the first lockdown in March/April of last year. The same... 15th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Suga banking on Pfizer vaccine ending harsh winter Japan’s state of emergency was extended to seven additional prefectures this week, with the declaration now covering more than half of national GDP. And there are early signs that the recovery in... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Doubts about vaccination strategy, soaring vacancies Australian scientists are proposing a halt in the rollout of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, which forms the bulk of available vaccine doses in Australia, because its lower effectiveness compared to... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Investment recovering, but headwinds remain The latest monthly activity data suggest that investment growth recovered further in Q4. The rebound should continue over the coming months, but is likely to slow in the second half of the year as... 15th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccines rollouts to boost GDP & Nordic currencies The latest data suggest that activity was more resilient in Q4 than we had previously feared, with GDP in Norway and Sweden likely to have grown relative to the previous quarter, for example. That... 14th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccines to drive strong recovery this year and next Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be... 14th January 2021 · 20 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank eyeing tighter macroprudential policy The Norges Bank will almost certainly leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday, but there is an outside chance that it could start to re-tighten macroprudential policy to tame the... 14th January 2021 · 5 mins read
