Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the...

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

ECB to cut deposit rate to just 1.5%

In light of the worsening outlook for economic growth and inflation in the euro-zone, we are making major downward revisions to our ECB interest rate forecast. We now think the Bank will implement...

28th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar

The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

New immigration targets a headache for the Bank

Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by a larger 50bp this week, the Bank of Canada outlined a set of positive economic forecasts, partly because it expects residential investment growth to...

25th October 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

Durable Goods Orders (Sep. 2024)

While the fall in durable goods orders in September was mostly due to the volatile transportation components, the decline in underlying capital goods shipments will still drag on business equipment...

25th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB’s dovish shift, euro heading for parity?

ECB policymakers were out in force at the IMF meetings in Washington this week and many seemed willing to contemplate a 50bp rate cut in December. We now think that is the most likely decision and...

25th October 2024 · 11 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Date set for fiscal reveal, stock frenzy boosting GDP

The details of a widely anticipated fiscal stimulus package are expected to be revealed at the NPC Standing Committee’s next meeting, which has just been scheduled for 4th to 8th November. This...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Ifo Survey (October 2024)

The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in October still left it deep in recessionary territory. With growth in the rest of the euro-zone also weak, we now expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate by...

25th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Population decline will drag down GDP growth

The government’s new immigration plan implies that the population will decline by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, a huge shift from population growth of almost 3% over the past two years. That means GDP...

24th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

Weak PMIs make the case for faster rate cuts

The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth got off to a weak start in Q4 in most major advanced economies. The surveys also imply a slowdown in both services activity and employment growth in...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (October 2024)

The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy has entered a softer patch. Coupled with the RBI's change in policy stance in its October meeting, this suggests that...

24th October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in Q3, but we expect growth to slow over the coming quarters - despite the recent stimulus announcements in China. The threat of more protectionist trade policy in the US poses...

24th October 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2024)

The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q rise in Q3, continued to slow to a crawl at the start of Q4. This...

24th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2024)

The low activity and price components of the flash PMIs for the euro-zone in October will strengthen the conviction of policymakers who think the ECB should step up the pace of rate cuts. We now think...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for a slowdown

Saudi Arabia’s economy is making a steady recovery as solid growth in the non-oil sector offsets low oil production. Growth will continue to pick up over the coming quarters, but the drivers will...

24th October 2024 · 4 mins read