Latin America Economics Weekly Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2024) Retail sales ticked up in May and we expect them to continue to rise gradually from here. 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May) The slump in German industrial production in May fully reverses the increase in output at the start of the year and suggests that German industry is not out of the woods yet. We expect output to... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing US activity unlikely to burst the AI bubble The US ISM services data published yesterday suggested that US economic growth slowed in June. Even so, the S&P 500 index surged on the news. And we think it will rise much further, as stock market... 4th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of... 4th July 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (May) The latest activity data suggest that Russia’s economy continued to motor along in May, driven by stronger growth in industry. The economy is clearly overheating and this continues to fuel inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (June 2024) The decline in the ISM services index to 48.8 in June, from 53.8, takes it to its lowest since the lockdowns in 2020. Alongside a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, these surveys suggest that GDP... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth: out of sync One of the takeaways from our latest Emerging Markets Outlook is that the EM business cycle is unusually unsynchronised. We expect some convergence as the effects of the enormous macro shocks of... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on its last legs We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However... 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (May 2024) The upside surprise in the May retail sales numbers primarily reflected consumers taking advantage of end-of-financial year sales events. As a result, we doubt the data will allay the RBA’s concerns... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recovery in residential investment to lose steam The rebound in residential investment over the past year will go into reverse in Q2, as housing starts and home sales slump again. We expect this weakness to persist thanks to a coming slump in new... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs show recovery losing pace The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in global industry lost some momentum at the end of Q2. While activity in emerging markets continued to grow strongly, industry was still... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Asia continuing to lead EM manufacturing PMIs higher The EM manufacturing PMI rose to a three-year high in June, driven by improvements in the surveys in much of Asia which have continued to benefit from strong export demand. Manufacturing recoveries... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read
