RBI Watch RBI unlikely to follow its EM peers EM monetary policy has turned decidedly more hawkish in recent weeks. But, with a renewed surge COVID-19 infections a downside risk to India’s recovery, we don’t think the Reserve Bank will be joining... 29th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly In with the TOPIX, car chipmaker fire, mobility surge While we revised up our forecasts for long-term US Treasury yields this week, we've left our upbeat forecasts for Japanese equities unchanged. One major change we have made though is to switch our... 26th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government’s housing moves take pressure off RBNZ New tax policies aimed at reducing the appeal of housing as an investment asset in New Zealand, together with the RBNZ’s macroprudential policies, should lead to lower house price growth in the months... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP to resume easing cycle later in the year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, and while a temporary rise in inflation means interest rates are set to remain on hold for the next few... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to further recovery, strong price pressures March’s advanced economy PMIs painted a positive picture, with headline indices typically now well into expansionary territory. Supply shortages are boosting prices and constraining output to some... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor Rebound levelling off as tighter policy starts to bite Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows a surge in year-on-year growth at the start of 2021. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Buoyant foreign demand boosted... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Impact of a travel bubble would be small Even if the long-rumoured Australia-New Zealand travel bubble does go ahead, it wouldn’t make a huge difference to either economy. We think the bubble would give a small boost to New Zealand’s GDP and... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Mar. 2021) The slight rise in the composite PMI in March was a little disappointing given that most state of emergency declarations had been lifted and suggests that the economy may not be entering Q2 with much... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What would a global return to normality mean for Asia? As vaccines are rolled out across the world and restrictions on economic activity are removed, we expect global consumption patterns to return to something like normal. Electronics exporters, most... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Quietly doubling down on Made in China 2025 The 14th Five-Year Plan makes clear that self-sufficiency has grown as a priority for China’s leadership. But it is light on specifics. The details will probably be fleshed out in the raft of industry... 19th March 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Renewed virus outbreak a key downside risk The rise in new COVID-19 infections to a three-month high this week does not appear to be a major threat to India's economy yet as cases are still comparatively low and the outbreak has predominantly... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout kicking into gear, emergency over With Japan initially entirely reliant on imports of the Pfizer vaccine, many initial concerns over the speed of the vaccine rollout centred on supply constraints. However, that hasn't been an issue... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q4 2020) The 6.8% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q4 shows the economy headed into 2021 with significant momentum. And the outlook is bright given the country’s swift vaccine progress. As a result, we are revising... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2020) The solid decline in activity in Q4 means that a second recession is imminent as GDP is bound to decline in Q1. 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Growth of goods spending to ease as services recover The recent pick-up in consumer spending in DMs has been characterised by a sharp rise in spending on goods. The next leg of the recovery will be focused on services as restrictions are removed... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak recovery to follow January slump South Africa’s hard activity data for January show that virus-related restrictions meant that the economy started the year on a very weak footing. We think that the recovery will struggle to gain much... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
