Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4 2020) The improvement in Russian GDP growth to -1.8% y/y in Q4 was driven by a rebound in household consumption and investment and confirms that the economy held up well during the second virus wave. This... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb. 2021) The 0.7% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production was led by the auto sector, which may reflect supply shortages but also weakening demand following the end of emergency income support. With the... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to lower industrial metals prices Despite some conflicting messages from the official and unofficial PMI data out of China, both surveys continue to point to lower industrial metals prices. A pick-up in manufacturing activity and... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Surge in virus cases a growing threat to recovery The rise in new COVID-19 infections to a six-month high yesterday has predominantly been limited to one state. But there are signs that the virus is spreading rapidly to other parts of the country and... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fourth wave fears, pace of inoculations slow until May The jump in retail sales in February and the strong rise in the Q1 Tankan released today confirm that the economy weathered the second state of emergency far better than the first. And there is... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) After yesterday’s strong set of Official PMI data, the Caixin manufacturing index published today disappointed, falling to an eleven-month low. Taken together, the surveys are consistent with a slight... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation target maintained, external risks diminished Confirmation that the RBI’s current target of 4% headline inflation will be maintained for another five years is the best outcome from an economic perspective, as tinkering with it could have un... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) March PMI readings suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places in Asia. Global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for the next few months. 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade & Retail Sales (Feb.) Retail sales and the trade surplus declined in February but while we still expect consumption to rise in Q1, net trade may have been a drag on growth. 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q1 2021) The further strong rebound in the Q1 Tankan supports our view that the economy’s recovery from the pandemic will gather pace again soon. And firms’ upbeat capital spending plans for the upcoming... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Will households spend the money they have saved? We’ve assumed households just go back to saving the same share of their income as they did before the crisis. That is enough to drive a rapid economic recovery. The upside risk is if households go... 31st March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Mar.) The latest surveys suggest that after being hit by virus disruptions earlier in the year, activity bounced back strongly this month. But we suspect it won’t be long before growth is slowing again. 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production (Feb. 2021) The fall in industrial production in February came off the back of a strong January and shouldn’t prevent manufacturing output rising across Q1. And firms’ production forecasts for April point to a... 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asian central banks in no rush to raise interest rates Unlike in some emerging markets, central banks across Emerging Asia are in no rush to tighten monetary policy. External factors won’t compel policymakers to tighten, and with inflationary pressures... 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Retail Sales (Feb. 2021) The strong rise in retail sales in February to their highest level since September 2019 supports our view that the economy just about avoided a contraction in Q1. And while the unemployment rate was... 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q1) Vietnam’s economy lost a little momentum in the first quarter due to a renewed virus outbreak, but with the latest wave quashed and most restrictions now lifted, the economy should bounce back... 29th March 2021 · 3 mins read
