Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way in unbalanced recovery A strong vaccine rollout in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE and Bahrain, and Morocco should mean that containment measures are eased soon, paving the way for sustained economic recoveries. But the... 27th April 2021 · 25 mins read
India Economics Update How badly is the economy being hit? Real-time data on traffic, electricity demand and mobility suggest that, so far at least, India’s virus outbreak has had more of an impact on behaviour than it has on activity. We will continue to... 27th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Kuroda’s term to end with inflation still below target The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated. And by predicting inflation well below its 2% target all the way to FY2023, the Bank signalled that Governor Kuroda won’t... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1, provisional) Korea’s economic recovery regained momentum in Q1, adding weight to our above-consensus growth forecast of 5% for 2021. Loose fiscal policy and strong export demand should continue to support the... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update A closer look at ‘excess’ household savings Income support and limits on spending had already led households in advanced economies to build up almost $3.5tn in extra cash by the end of 2020, equating to 7.6% of GDP. And the stockpile of these... 26th April 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly New growth forecasts, service sector divergence We’ve nudged down our China growth forecast for 2021 in response to incoming data suggesting that momentum slowed more than we’d expected in the early part of this year. Our expectations for the rest... 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly How damaging will be the new restrictions be? With the economic damage from last year’s lockdown still fresh in the memory, there appears to be little appetite for a return to extreme measures to curb the ongoing outbreak. But given the very... 23rd April 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy to stagnate in first half of the year The states of emergency set to begin in four major prefectures on Sunday will knock back Japan’s economic recovery and should mean that output stagnates across the first half of 2021. While the... 23rd April 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Domestic travel fuelling recovery The available data suggest that the recovery in consumption stalled at the start of the year and the slow rollout of vaccines could be an additional headwind. However, with the virus all but... 23rd April 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2021) Inflation continued to rebound in March mainly due to a further pickup in energy inflation. We think headline inflation will rise further and break past the lofty heights of +1% y/y later in the year. 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q1) We think underlying inflation will remain close to the RBNZ’s target for the foreseeable future which supports our view that the RBNZ will hike rates next year. 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government sets out stimulus worth 4.4% of GDP The additional stimulus outlined in today’s Budget was in line with our expectations and, while a few of the proposals will raise eyebrows, the total package should help to support a strong economic... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fourth virus wave to slow recovery The fourth virus wave has so far been largely concentrated in Osaka and a state of emergency declaration in that prefecture alone would not prevent national output from rebounding in Q2. However, as... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Mar. 2021) While export values rose in March, the rebound in exports slowed significantly across Q1 and external demand is unlikely to provide much of a tailwind to growth this year. 19th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Focus Accelerated technology use will improve productivity There is evidence that the pandemic has accelerated technology use, partly through increased equipment investment but mainly through a change in the way that people work. The effects on productivity... 16th April 2021 · 14 mins read
