China Rapid Response

China PMIs (Oct. 2024)

The PMIs have overstated the weakness in China’s economy during the past year. But they still provide some sense of the direction of travel. The good news is that the surveys point to an improvement...

31st October 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2024)

Although real retail sales saw a healthy pickup in Q3, there are reasons to suspect the data are overstating the momentum behind overall household consumption. That being the case, policy implications...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep. 24)

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Sep.)

The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for September were a bit stronger than expected, although GDP growth still probably slowed over Q3 as a whole towards 3.0% y/y.

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Godongwana talks up growth, but austerity is order of the day

The South African Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was presented as a “pro-growth” statement, but the numbers underscore that the government has no room to loosen the fiscal stance...

30th October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

GDP (Q3)

Despite earlier fears that the US economy was headed for recession, growth continued to out-perform other DMs. Third-quarter GDP growth came in at a solid 2.8% annualised, down only trivially from the...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional)

The stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q3 confirms that the economy pulled out of the slump seen in the first half of the year last quarter. We still think the conditions...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Mozambique’s instability heightens default risks

The outbreak of unrest in Mozambique after contested elections is unlikely to have a large impact on growth in the near term. But any attempts by the government to loosen fiscal policy to appease...

30th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (October 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American financial assets have come under pressure amid the recent rise in...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

RBA Watch

RBA still on course to cut rates by February

The Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. We suspect it will reiterate its pledge to hold its fire until year-end, given that the labour...

30th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q3)

The weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe, which showed that the Hungarian economy slipped back into recession last quarter, suggests that stagnating demand from the euro-zone is...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

France and Spain GDP (Q3 2024)

Third quarter GDP data reported so far suggest that the aggregate euro-zone growth rate will be a little higher than we had forecast in Q3, but the big picture is that, the Olympics and Spain aside...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Financial sector drives a strong expansion

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth picked up in September, bringing Q3 growth in-line with official estimates. While this acceleration was broad-based across sectors, the main...

29th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

How would a collapse of USMCA affect Mexico?

A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a plausible scenario in which Mexico were to face a universal import...

29th October 2024 · 6 mins read