Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s economy recorded a slight contraction in Q1 as the impact of the Kingdom’s additional voluntary output cut more than offset a further rebound in non-oil sectors. With oil output cuts... 10th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2021) The drop in real retail sales in Q1 suggests that the recovery in consumption slowed last quarter. And with the vaccination drive still slow, we think that consumption will only return to pre-virus... 10th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Reasons for hope and despair New infections in a handful of key states including Maharashtra now appear to be stabilising but, with the virus still spreading in almost every other part of the country, containment measures will... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Resilient economic activity not necessarily good news While economic activity appears to have held up well so far in Q2, daily cases are close to record highs at the nationwide level. Indeed, the government is today set to announce an extension of the... 7th May 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tourism recovering, Phase One deal remains a dud Domestic tourists made a record number of trips over the recent Labour Day holiday. But in a sign that consumers are still holding back, daily tourism spending was still a fifth below pre-pandemic... 7th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 2021) Wage growth turned positive for the first time since the pandemic began in March and we think it will accelerate further next month due to favourable base effects. Further ahead wage growth should... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Pandemic unlikely to result in long-term scarring The closure of the border will reduce Australia’s potential output by around 2.5%. But this will be partly offset by higher productivity growth due to increased usage of technology and more employees... 6th May 2021 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery about to begin Following the recent progress on vaccinations across the euro-zone, we are revising up our GDP forecasts. We now think that the recovery will begin in Q2 and that the economy will return to its pre... 5th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The 2.4% m/m drop in Brazil’s industrial production in March is a clear sign that the severe virus outbreak has put the economic recovery into reverse and the data for April may be worse still. But... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ramps up virus response In an unscheduled announcement today, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das unveiled an array of measures aimed at mitigating the economic and financial impact of India’s virus crisis. This Update takes stock... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) Indonesia’s economy struggled to gain any momentum in the first quarter of the year and a failure to contain the virus will hold back the recovery in the quarters ahead. 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.7% in New Zealand is consistent with our view that a continued tightening in the labour market will prompt the RBNZ to hike rates next year. 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s robust manufacturing PMIs for Czechia and Poland were artificially boosted by longer supplier delivery times and there were further signs that supply chain issues have caused price pressures... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The drop back in the ISM manufacturing index, to 60.7 in April from 64.7, appears to reflect intense and widespread supply constraints rather than a moderation in demand, a view which is underlined by... 3rd May 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s y/y GDP growth turned positive in Q1 for the first time since Q2 2019. Even after accounting for base effects, the economy expanded impressively thanks to the strength of exports. With the... 3rd May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI held up well in April, reflecting the fact that the containment measures in response to the surge in COVID-19 cases have been very light touch compared to last year. But the... 3rd May 2021 · 2 mins read
