Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) Thailand’s GDP inched up in Q1, despite a renewed outbreak of the virus. But output is unlikely to hold up this quarter. We expect the economy to shrink sharply as a further surge in new COVID-19... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q1 2021, First Estimate) Poland’s economy performed a little worse than most had expected in Q1 and the tightening of restrictions to curb a third wave of COVID-19 means that quarterly growth in Q2 is likely to be slower... 14th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Slowdown in vaccine rollout casts a dark cloud New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but there have at least been some encouraging signs this week that the current wave is close to peaking. However, lacklustre progress with the... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining investment boom 2.0 unlikely The surge in the price of iron ore will lift Australia’s export revenues and boost mining profits, but we suspect that the impact on domestic demand will be modest. And with the price of liquefied... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery delayed as vaccine rollout still too slow The vaccination rollout failed to accelerate markedly after the Golden Week holidays. This is entirely due to logistical challenges rather than insufficient vaccine supply, which should be resolved... 14th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: industry strength unlikely to last South African hard activity data for March paint a bright picture of the recovery in the mining and manufacturing sectors. The easing of lockdown measures combined with favourable base effects are... 13th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor High-frequency data suggest that outflows from India’s bond and equity markets have picked up in recent weeks as the country’s COVID-19 outbreak has worsened. At an aggregate level, though, outflows... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s natural gas dreams evaporating? Security problems in Mozambique are putting huge natural gas investment projects at risk, clouding the country’s otherwise bright economic outlook while reigniting default concerns. 12th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped to a three-month low in April, adding to evidence elsewhere that the recent tightening of virus restrictions has not been as economically disruptive as the... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.7% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in March masked a more impressive 3.0% m/m increase in output in the key manufacturing sector, which recovered from disruptions caused by power... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q1 2021) The weaker-than-expected 1.0% q/q decrease in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q1 confirmed that the economy slipped behind its Swedish counterpart at the start of the year, and suggests that it is now... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update China & US censuses: don’t count on catch-up The 2020 US and China censuses add to the reasons why we think China will struggle to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s birth rate has continued to fall and the population will... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) Turkey’s activity figures for March suggest that the economy recorded further growth in Q1. But the recovery lost steam over the quarter and the combination of more restrictive virus containment... 11th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) Malaysia's economy saw an export-driven rebound of 2.7% q/q in Q1, despite a partial lockdown midway through the quarter. But a resurgence in virus cases and the recent reimposition of containment... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) The Philippines economy barely improved in Q1 and the reimposition of strict containment measures is likely to see output shrink this quarter. 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Current messages from the real-time data Real-time data indicate that industry in India has not been hit as severely as services, and is holding up well compared to a year ago. That’s a reflection of the more targeted restrictions that have... 10th May 2021 · 2 mins read
