India Economics Weekly Activity bottoming out The continued drop in new virus cases has coincided with a bottoming out in some of the real-time activity data, and the evidence from last year suggests that activity could bounce back rapidly when... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour shortages may take some time to clear With labour shortages weighing on hiring there is even more uncertainty than usual over May’s employment report, but we estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a relatively subdued 500,000. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The 1.3% m/m decline in durable goods orders in April partly reflected the impact of semiconductor shortages in the automobile sector, with motor vehicle orders falling by 6.2% m/m last month... 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery losing momentum in Q2 High-frequency data suggest that economies in Emerging Europe and parts of Latin America are over the worst of their latest virus outbreaks, but the worrying surge in virus cases in some Asian... 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank won’t wait for the ECB The Norges Bank has a history of beginning to tighten policy earlier than the ECB and we think it will follow that pattern again this year. Meanwhile, although it’s not the most likely scenario, we... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to alter policy soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and given that the recovery still has a way to go, the BoK is likely to leave policy accommodative for at least the next few... 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q1) We estimate that private investment rose by 4.1% q/q in Q1 and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest the strong rebound in investment is set to continue in the months ahead. 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think 10-year yields will rise gradually in most cases While the RBNZ is gearing up to hiking rates next year, we think that most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until early 2023... 26th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Tackling climate change will be costlier than elsewhere Over the next few years, there is potential for increased “green” investment to more than offset the negative economic effects of measures such as further carbon tax hikes. But given the economy’s... 26th May 2021 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tourism set for uneven recovery Strong vaccine rollouts in the Gulf and Morocco have allowed for an easing of travel-related restrictions but there is still a long way to go and recoveries in tourism sectors are likely to be slow... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Higher costs and delays are not damaging demand The further rise in real trade in March suggests that external demand continued to recover, even as capacity constraints related to shipping were intensifying. And while shipping costs have risen and... 26th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the euro’s recent strength will prove to be transitory While recent strong data confirm that the economic recovery in the eurozone is underway, we continue to think the euro will weaken against the US dollar this year. 25th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1, Revised) Revised Q1 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy grew more strongly than first thought at the start of 2021. While a resurgence in virus cases is likely to drag on GDP this quarter, this headwind... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery to remain stuck in first gear The pick-up in Nigeria’s GDP growth in Q1 was driven in large part by the oil sector and rising oil output will support a further acceleration in growth over the coming quarters. But FX restrictions... 24th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) The m/m fall in industrial production and retail sales in Poland in April confirmed that the country’s third virus wave caused the economy to start the quarter on a soft note. But with new virus cases... 24th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: supply is struggling to keep up with demand The flash PMIs for May suggest that the recovery is well underway in those economies that are now on top of the virus. However, supply is still struggling to keep up with surging demand. And as well... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
