India Data Response GDP (Q1) The smaller than expected rise in Indian GDP in Q1 will be followed by a significant contraction in Q2 caused by the virus surge and tightening of containment measures. While the real-time activity... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: economic resilience in the face of lockdown Despite the worsening virus situation and the announcement of a “total lockdown”, Malaysia’s economy is likely to hold up relatively well, as booming exports offset the hit to private consumption. We... 31st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Rate hikes coming in Korea as recovery gathers momentum With the economy rebounding strongly from the crisis, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is starting to shift its attention away from supporting growth and towards containing financial risks. We expect the BoK... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (May) The latest surveys suggest that stronger construction activity nudged up overall growth this month and that supply shortages are pushing up prices even as final demand for manufactured goods appears... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr. 2021) The sharp fall in retail sales and weaker than expected rise in industrial production in April suggests the economy was subdued even before states of emergency were declared, supporting our view that... 31st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hot economy summer The re-opening plans set out in the last couple of weeks point to strong gains in GDP over the summer. Given supply constraints, we expect the increase in activity to result in higher inflation than... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy prevent economies reopening? 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira devalued for real, utility deals in Ethiopia & SA Policymakers in Nigeria appear to have bowed to pressure to devalue the official exchange rate, which will probably improve the public finances and help unlock multilateral financing. That said, a... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Drop back in bond yields takes pressure off ECB The fall in sovereign bond yields over the past week may make things a little easier for the ECB Governing Council when it meets on 10 th June. We think it is likely to replace its commitment to make... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss seven-year itch; lots to ponder at the Riksbank The breakdown of the Swiss/EU Treaty talks has taken the headlines this week, but the Swiss economy appears to be galloping ahead in any case. While the belated release of Q1 GDP data next week is... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Troubles in construction unlikely to be repeated elsewhere Output in the construction sector was already 2.3% above its pre-crisis level in March and there is evidence that supply constraints are starting to bite. However, there is still plenty of spare... 28th May 2021 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor Surprising on the upside Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output rose further above its pre-virus trend last month thanks to the recent rebound in services and continued strength in industry and construction. We... 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed strong increases in most countries in May, largely driven by improvements in services sentiment as economies have started to re-open. This is likely to be... 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s recovery set back, RBNZ signals rate hikes The outbreak of the Indian virus variant in Victoria this week highlights the risks from the slow vaccine roll-out. Despite strong investment figures for Q1, we are sticking to our forecast that the... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly State of emergency extension, Olympic fifth wave? While the fourth wave of coronavirus has broken, with hospital capacity still stretched the government will today extend the emergency declarations covering half of the economy until 20 th June. That... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
