Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The worse-than-expected 1.3% m/m decline in Brazilian industrial production in April is likely to be followed by a partial recovery last month. That said, the latest surveys suggest that activity in... 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Apr.) April’s money and credit data suggests that consumers were still wary about taking on any additional debt. But even if consumers’ willingness to borrow remains limited, they have enough firepower to... 2nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 2021) Australia's GDP surpassed its pre-virus level in Q1 but with the vaccination rollout still slow and a fresh lockdown in Melbourne, the recovery is set to slow. 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update CEE manufacturing strengthens, but India suffers Markit’s aggregate emerging market manufacturing PMI dropped back in May as new virus waves took a toll on some countries, notably India, although they suggest that the manufacturing recovery in... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) While the headline ISM manufacturing index edged up to 61.2 in May, from 60.7, the main takeaway from the release was that shortages of workers, and not just raw materials, now appear to be playing a... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) The first-quarter data confirm that the economy took the second coronavirus wave in its stride but, with the preliminary estimate showing that GDP fell in April, the third wave has been much more... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland and Hungary Q1 outperformance to continue The breakdown of Q1 GDP data showed that strong domestic demand supported expansions in Hungary and Poland, despite severe virus waves, whereas another fall in household spending held back Czechia’s... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2021) The 1.2% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP suggests that the economy held up well during the country’s second virus wave and more timely figures point to a rapid recovery from the more recent third wave... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs may be as good as it gets The key takeaways from China’s May survey data are that while demand remains robust, supply shortages are leading to inventory drawdowns and price inflation. The data are broadly positive for... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in May points to an improvement in underlying economic conditions in the sector, but we think that the recovery will be held back by key headwinds... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1 2021) & PMIs (May) Data released this morning confirmed that the Swiss economy started 2021 on the back foot following a tightening in virus-related restrictions. However, activity will have gathered pace in Q2. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI to a ten-month low in May suggests that activity has taken a hit from the second virus wave despite the sector being largely exempt from containment measures. And... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) Unlike the official PMI survey released yesterday, the Caixin manufacturing index published today rose last month. The key takeaway is that while output edged up on the back of still strong demand... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The May PMIs softened slightly but were still mainly consistent with improvements in manufacturing sectors. Strong global demand for electronics will continue to support output over the next few... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
